What Does SP+ And ESPN's FPI Project For Georgia Tech vs North Carolina?
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The betting markets are not giving Georgia Tech much of a chance this weekend, as North Carolina is a three-touchdown favorite, but the analytical models are not giving the Yellow Jackets much of a chance either.
This should not be a huge surprise because both SP+ and ESPN's FPI have not given favorable projections for Georgia Tech in nearly any game this season, even when the Yellow Jackets are favored in Vegas and the quarterback situation for the Yellow Jackets does not inspire a lot of confidence heading into this weekend.
Georgia Tech is a huge underdog against North Carolina this weekend
Freshman quarterback Zach Pyron is out for the season after being injured against Miami and Jeff Sims is away from the team indefinitely. It is likely to be Zach Gibson under center on Saturday against North Carolina.
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
This week, FPI is giving North Carolina an 89% chance to win the game.
Can Georgia Tech pull off a big upset on Saturday against North Carolina?
SP+ has North Carolina as a bigger favorite than what they currently are in the betting markets.
Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:
"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."
"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
SP+ has North Carolina as a near 25-point favorite. The projected score for the game is 45-20 and the Tar Heels have a 92% of winning.
It will be up to the Yellow Jackets to play a closer game than what most are projecting. With how much the North Carolina defense struggles against seemingly everyone, that might be the best pathway to victory for Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech vs North Carolina will kick off at 5:30 on Saturday and will be on ESPN2.
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