ESPN's FPI Gives Its Prediction For No. 12 Georgia Tech vs Duke

Georgia Tech given only a 38% chance to win on Saturday against Duke

Oct 11, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Malachi Hosley (0) celebrates with fans holding a flag of quarterback Haynes King (not pictured) after a victory over the Virginia Tech Hokies in the fourth quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech is going into unfamiliar territory when it faces Duke in Durham, North Carolina, on Saturday. For one of the few times this season, Georgia Tech is an underdog.

ESPN's FPI favors Duke against the Yellow Jackets, giving them a 61.8% chance to win. Georgia Tech is given just a 38.2% chance to win the game. This will be one of the toughest tests Georgia Tech has faced this season, with a team in Duke that has a lot of confidence and sits at 3-0 in the ACC.

Georgia Tech has seen a slight improvement in terms of FPI as an overall team, climbing from No. 42 to No. 35 overall team. The Yellow Jackets have already eclipsed six wins and are bowl eligible for the third consecutive year. Georgia Tech is given a 10.8% chance to win the ACC and an 18.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff ahead of their matchup against Duke. The Yellow Jackets have everything in front of them and control their own destiny, but will need to handle business on Saturday. There is one area they will have to slow down if they want a chance.

Duke's Explosive Offense

Sep 27, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) runs out of the pocket in the second quarter against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Duke has been one of the better offenses in college football this season. The Blue Devils are a top 20 unit in total offense. An area where they have been elite has been in pass offense. Duke is ranked No. 10 in the country, averaging 310 yards per game this season. They also don’t turnover the ball and have only thrown two interceptions at the midway point of the year. Their quarterback, Darian Mensah, has been the star of the show, throwing for 1,838 yards and 15 touchdowns. He ranked in the top 20 in the nation in QBR (quarterback rating) with a 78.9. Mensah has been playing college football for only two seasons and already looks like he will eclipse his numbers from his freshman season with Tulane. He is also completing his passes at a high rate, nearly 70%, and is on pace to have a career year.

Haynes King has continued to emerge as a Heisman candidate for the Yellow Jackets with his dual-threat ability so far this year. He is the leading rusher for Georgia Tech with 440 yards and nine touchdowns. He has also been efficient through the air, completing 71.2% of his passes and has four touchdowns to just one interception. They will need another big performance from King on offense to have a chance to win the game against Duke. The offense will need to be clicking on cylinders to keep plays with the Blue Devils offense. Against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech hit explosive after explosive, and the Hokies' defense didn’t have an answer. They will need the same on Saturday. Georgia Tech is no stranger to being an underdog and has relished in that role throughout the Brent Key era, and has always been ready to play and shock the college football world. Don’t be surprised if you see them playing with an added sense of urgency and energy this weekend.

What exactly is FPI though?

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."