FPI Predicts Outcome For Georgia Tech-Mercer Week 3 Matchup

Week 3 is here, and Georgia Tech will close out a three-game home stand with a rivalry dating back to 1892, when Mercer was the first official opponent for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech comes in at 0-2 in search of its first win of the season. Mercer is 2-1 after starting the season undefeated before falling to Furman last week, 20-13.

One of Georgia Tech's big concerns this season has been its offense, which hasn’t been consistent and has struggled to put points on the board, with just two offensive touchdowns in eight quarters. They will look to correct some of those things against Mercer.

If the analytics and power ratings are correct, then Georgia Tech will be 1-2 heading into the week four game vs Stanford.

First, here's a quick explainer on how the Football Power Index actually works.

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through [136]; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules."

ESPN's FPI gives Georgia Tech a 92.8% chance of coming out with a win on Saturday afternoon.

What must Georgia Tech do to pull out the win?

Brent Key laid out some of the most important factors when it comes to college football and the areas you must be good at to win. Georgia Tech has struggled in a lot of the areas, but has a chance to make up for some of the adversity they have faced this season. One of the key areas that could get the Yellow Jackets back on track is explosive plays. We saw a few more in the running game vs. Tennessee.

“They are explosive differentials. Us to them, pretty simple. Points per possession, red zone touchdowns. So when you get in the red zone- not touchdowns, but when you get in the red zone- scoring touchdowns, third-down percentages, turnovers and takeaways, and then pressuring the quarterback. Not sacks, but pressure. Are you able to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, and are you able to protect the quarterback in those situations? So those are the six things. And when you look at those, those are... And, you know, why have you not had the success you wanted? Okay, well, when you look at the situational aspect of it, those are the things we have to improve on. Those are the things we have to get better at. Those are the things we have to be able to do. Okay? So that's pretty black and white with where the game was,” said Key.

A few explosive players they can connect with are Dalen Penson and Jordan Allen. Allen leads the Yellow Jackets in catches and receiving yards this season. Penson leads the team in average yards per catch and has the longest reception of the season with 42 yards. Both have unique qualities and could help the Yellow Jackets in the explosive category. It will be interesting to see if they get the ball more.

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