Georgia Tech Ranks 47th In ESPN's 2023 Returning Production Numbers
While returning production is not a complete indicator of how a team is going to perform in the coming season, but it is a good early look for projections.
ESPN's Bill Connelly charts the returning production for all 133 teams each season and his rankings came out today. Georgia Tech is ranked 47th in total returning production, returning 67% of their total production from last season. Their offensive returning production is 69%, which ranks 55th, and their defensive returning production is 66%, which ranks 54th in the country.
Georgia Tech ranks 47th in returning production for the upcoming season
A couple of quick notes about Connelly's returning production rankings:
Here is how Connelly gathers the data for the offensive returning production numbers:
Here's the current weighting for determining the offensive percentages above:
Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 24% of the overall number
Percent of returning QB passing yards: 23%
Percent of returning OL snaps: 47%
Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 6%
Here is how the defensive production is calculated:
Percent of returning tackles: 70%
Percent of returning passes defensed: 14%
Percent of returning tackles for loss: 12%
Percent of returning sacks: 4%
One question you might be asking yourself is how transfers factor in these rankings. Connelly does a nice job of explaining it:
Returning production: Quite crudely, if a player transfers from one FBS school to another, I mash his production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was starting somewhere else, that dampens the overall blow of your QB leaving significantly.
(Because the translation from lower levels to upper is extremely inconsistent, I don't do this for players transferring up from the FCS or Division II. I would like to get to a point where I can make adjustments to players' stats as they move from level to level, but I'm not there yet.)
Recruiting: As of 2022, I began attempting to account for incoming transfers' recruiting rankings in a team's recruiting averages. It was pure guesswork last year because we simply hadn't experienced anything like USC bringing in 18 transfers, including the reigning Biletnikoff winner and a Heisman-favorite quarterback, before. We still have only one year of mega-transfer data to work with, but I've been able to make some decent tweaks based on said year.
Obviously the portal never stops portaling, so it should be noted that the data above was derived according to players' status in the portal as of Monday morning, Feb. 6.
Georgia Tech is going to be returning production at almost every spot, but some more than others.
All three quarterbacks (Haynes King, Zach Pyron, and Zach Gibson) played last year. Leading rusher Hassan Hall is gone, but second-leading rusher Dontae Smith is back. At the wide receiver spot, Georgia Tech is going to be missing its top three receivers from last season, but have hit the portal hard to find replacements.
Georgia Tech is going to be returning almost all of its offensive line production, except for guard Pierce Quick, who has decided not to finish his playing career.
D'Quan Douse is one of the leaders returning to the defense
On the defensive line, the most noticeable departure is potential first-round pick Keion White, who led the team in sacks last season. Guys like Makius Scott, D'Quan Douse, Kyle Kennard, and Sylvain Yondjouen are going to have to help replace White's production.
There are going to be big losses at linebacker, with Charlie Thomas and Ace Eley off to the NFL. Transfers Braelen Oliver and Andre White Jr will help the transition, but those two guys are going to be missed.
The main guy missing in the secondary is going to be cornerback Zamari Walton, who transferred to Ole Miss. The good news is that LaMiles Brooks, Myles Sims, K.J. Wallace, and Clayton Powell-Lee are back and should be among the best secondaries in the ACC.
Kicker Gavin Stewart and punter David Shanahan are going to be returning this season as well.
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