What Do The Advanced Analytics Say About Georgia Tech's Matchup Against BYU In The Pop-Tarts Bowl?

Georgia Tech a major underdog against BYU according to advanced analytics

Nov 28, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) passes the ball against the Georgia Bulldogs during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech will be in action for one final time on Saturday when it plays against BYU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. The Yellow Jackets started off the season 8-0, but have lost three of their final four games. They are looking to finish strong and capture a 10-win season. BYU was just on the outside of the College Football Playoff after another strong season under head coach Kitani Sitake, who signed a contract extension with the Cougars. Their freshman quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, was a catalyst in another strong season and an 11-2 record. Let’s take a look at 

According to ESPN’s FPI, Georgia Tech is given just a 34.3% chance of winning on Saturday vs BYU. BYU is given a 65.7% chance to win this upcoming weekend. The Yellow Jackets are seen as an underdog on the neutral field in one of the best non-College Football Playoff bowl games. 

Still a lot to play for 

Nov 28, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key leads the team on the field before a game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech has a chance to finish in the top 25 to finish off the 2025 campaign with a win. It would also clinch its first 10-win season since 2014. It would also complete the rebuild for head coach Brent Key, who inherited the program permanently in 2023. It would mark three seasons under coach Key, who took the program from 5-7 into a winning program in a short span of time. Coach Key talked about the opportunity that awaits the Yellow Jackets on Saturday. 

"Final opportunity for us to be able to go compete as a football team this year. I'm excited about it. Chance to get a 10th win, top 25, finish, all those things. Which, if I'm mistaken, I think it's been 10 other times in Georgia Tech history to be able to do that. And we went down last night to the dinner and press conference for the bowl game. And it was great to be around Kalani. What a great guy. He has done a great job with his team, building that team. Then the two coaches from other games were there, Sark and Biff, to just us able to really have a lot of good conversations and talks and some old stories of guys being together or whatnot. It's funny that Kalani actually hosted Sark when he was on an official visit to BYU. There was a lot of history there. It was a fun time just going down there,” said coach Key.