ESPN Bracketology: Gonzaga's new route to the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 goes through Omaha
Based on the team's current resume, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are slated to start the 2024 NCAA Tournament in an unfamiliar position. Mark Few's program has earned a No. 4 seed or better in the last six postseasons, but that's currently not the case without a signature win over the first two months of the season.
ESPN's Bracketology by Joe Lunardi has the Zags (11-4, 2-0 WCC) as the No. 9 seed in the West Region, with Kansas as the region's No. 1 seed. Gonzaga's hypothetical opponent in the 8-seed/9-seed game would be Utah (11-4, 2-2 Pac-12), which is seeking its first appearance in the Big Dance since 2016 when it lost to the Domantas Sabonis-led Bulldogs in the second round. That game would take place at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.
The road to the program's ninth-straight Sweet 16 wouldn't be a cakewalk starting on the 9-seed line and outside of the Spokane region. The second round would likely feature a matchup with Kansas (13-1, 1-0 Big 12), which is a combined 5-1 in Quad 1 and 2 games with wins over Kentucky, Tennessee and UConn. The Jayhawks will be tested in the thick of Big 12 play, but that's nothing new for Bill Self's program.
The Bulldogs would have a tough time matching up against 7-foot-2 Hunter Dickinson, as well as versatile 6-foot-7 wing Kevin McCullar Jr.'s ability to make plays on both ends of the floor. The Jayhawks as a whole boast a lot of size, as they rank ninth in the country for average height, per KenPom's metrics. Gonzaga has its share of talented bigs too, but Dickinson and McCullar Jr. have been on a different level this season.
Regardless if it's Kansas or any one of Houston, UConn or Purdue on the 1-seed line, the Bulldogs' path to another deep run in the NCAA Tournament isn't looking favorable on the 9-seed line. A few quality wins in league play will help their chances of building their resume. San Francisco and Saint Mary's are Quad 1 games on the road and Quad 2 at home, while Thursday's game at Santa Clara will be Quad 2 currently. Outside of those opponents, the rest of the league schedule is riddled with Quad 3 and 4 games.
The matchup at Kentucky on Feb. 10 will be a critical resume builder outside of WCC action. The Wildcats are 17th in the NET Rankings with a 4-1 combined record in Quad 1 and 2 games. Lunardi has Kentucky as the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region.
If Gonzaga handles its business in league play and can steal a win at Rupp Arena, its postseason outlook will improve exponentially. But for now, the Bulldogs need to focus on winning the WCC to secure the automatic bid.
Elsewhere, BYU fell to the 6-seed line in the West Region following its loss to Cincinnati in the Big 12 opener. The Big 12 has eight teams in the latest Bracketology, tied for the most with the SEC. The Big Ten and Big East each have six representatives, with the ACC sending five teams and the Mountain West Conference at four.
Lunardi has San Diego State earning the automatic bid in the competitive MWC, as the Aztecs sit on the 5-seed line in the East Region. The MWC had four teams make the NCAA Tournament in 2023 and 2022.
