Evan Miyakawa breaks down Gonzaga's roster, most impactful newcomer and breakout player for 2025-26 season

The weeks leading up to the college basketball season are a reminder that there are essentially two lenses to look through when sharing discourse around one of the most unpredictable sports in the U.S.

As reputable media outlets release their preseason polls, while advanced analytics websites stack up every team in the country based on their own algorithms, the dichotomy between the "eye test" and complex metrics is never more evident.

For example, Gonzaga checked in at No. 21 in the Associated Press Top 25 preseason poll — exclusively voted on by media members — but came in at No. 10 on EvanMiya.com's rankings of all 365 Division I teams.

EvanMiya.com, which has quickly became one of the most popular college basketball analytics websites, ranks teams based on how it would they would be expected to perform head-to-head against other similarly ranked teams, while taking into account aspects like a team's efficiency ratings, opponent adjustment and pace adjustment. The site uses a similiar model to create ratings for players too, called the "Bayesian Performance Rating."

Needless to say, EvanMiya.com's methodology for ranking teams is more complex than the one the human voters use in the AP poll.

But according to the brains behind EvanMiya.com — Evan Miyakawa, a data scientist with a doctorate in statistics — it's on fans, coaches and the media to find where analytics and the "eye test" meet in order to understand the sport at a comprehensive level.

"No one knows what's going to happen, and that's why preseason rankings are so hotly debated, because everyone has a right to have their own opinion as to who they think is going to be a good team or good player," Miyakawa said to Gonzaga Bulldogs on SI. "We don't know the best player is going to be; even by the end of the year, we probably don't know who's going to win the national championship. And so I think that's what makes tools like my site so valuable to coaches, to fans, to media members; because it helps you actually ground what you're thinking in reality and in these kind of objective truths that aren't influenced by these biases. And so when you can then combine that with your own what you're seeing, it really allows you to be much more informed about the sport."

Miyakawa shared more of his perspective on Gonzaga's roster and what EvanMiya.com's projections indicate about the 2025-26 Zags in an exclusive interview with Gonzaga Bulldogs On SI.

(Watch the full interview at the bottom of this post)

On Gonzaga's depth after offseason makeover

The Zags revamped their roster through the transfer portal over the offseason after losing six of their top 10 rotational players from a team that won the West Coast Conference tournament and advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Those departures included Ryan Nembhard, Ben Gregg, Nolan Hickman and Khalif Battle — four players with a Bayesian Performance Rating of 4.6 or higher on EvanMiya.com.

Heading into the 2025-26, Graham Ike (7.9) and Braden Huff (6.93) are the only Bulldogs above that threshold in EvanMiya.com's preseason Bayesian Performance Ratings, which estimates a player's overall value to his team when on the floor based on key offensive and defensive statistics.

"Obviously, the roster makeup in is going to be look very different for Gonzaga this year," Miyakawa said. "And I think, relatively speaking, Gonzaga has done a good job over the years of really retaining key talent from one year to the next.

"I think the reality is when you lose guys from last year, like Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman and even Khalif Battle, who came in and had a really strong year; I think there's gonna feel like maybe one of the most different years for Gonzaga fans in terms of what last year to this year looks like. Especially when you're losing your point guard, who kind of defined the whole offense."

Jan 30, 2024; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs guards Nolan Hickman (11) and Ryan Nembhard (0). | James Snook-Imagn Images

"But with that being said, when you look at the top of the roster; yeah, I think maybe your starting five isn't, analytically speaking, as strong as it was last year, but in terms of star power at the top, getting Graham Ike back — I mean, this is one of the big things I preach, in general, for teams in terms of roster building. I've done a lot of studies of looking at what are the best ways to build a roster in the modern portal era, when you have so many different options of different places to recruit players and things like that, and it always often comes back to you gain an edge by retaining a lot of your key talent."

"And so getting a guy like Graham Ike back; obviously he's going to be in that preseason All-American conversation. He's just an absolutely productive stat monster, really. And then you also have Braden Huff coming back too, who I also have ranked inside the top 50."

"Braden Huff, I think, was one of the more controversial players I had ranked really highly last year for a lot of the year. But really what it comes down to is, on a per-possession basis, what Huff was able to do, especially offensively for Gonzaga last year and even in years the year prior, even in a limited sample size; he's just so, so good. His individual numbers look fantastic, and how well Gonzaga played offensively was really good. I think you're going to kind of be forced to be like, 'Hey, we need to play both these players more together,' and I'm very excited to see how that works."

On why Graham Ike's predicted to be even more impactful than he was in 2024-25

For as productive as Gonzaga's All-WCC forward was last season, Ike was valued as the third most important player on the 2024-25 roster behind Huff (7.98 BPR) and Nembhard (7.69) with a BPR of 6.86, which slotted him as the No. 82 player in the country by EvanMiya.com's count.

Going into his fifth season of college hoops, though, Ike checks in as a top-15 player in the country and paces the Zags with a 7.85 BPR score.

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (15). | Photo by Myk Crawford

"When you just look at how productive he was, how efficient he was even with the large workload that he had; and then you talk about a guy who's going to be going from a junior to a senior, and you've eliminated one group of players who were seniors last year, who he played against, and now you're replacing those with baby freshman, who he's going to be completely able to manhandle," Miyakawa said. "I think when you look at a player with his skillset and how reliable and consistent he's been, and the fact that we already saw flashes of it last year in Gonzaga, really running offense through him, I think it's going to be even more the case this year."

"There's just a lot of things in his profile that point to, he's going to be really dominant this year. And so I think one of the things that maybe dinged him a little bit last year was that, he was very productive from a statistical sense, but in terms of maybe how Gonzaga performed on the court, there were other players who were slightly more effective in terms of their overall impact on team performance. But I think when you look at the individual stuff that he did well last year, I think he's going to be the fulcrum for this team."

Based on EvanMiya.com's algorithms, how would Tyon Grant-Foster fit into the equation for Gonzaga and change its national standing?

Tyon Grant-Foster's eligibility was denied by the NCAA after this conversation was recorded.

If the Grand Canyon transfer is allowed to play in 2025-26, how would EvanMiya.com factor him into Gonzaga's equation?

"I don't have the number off the top my head, but I think his projection, if he was on the roster, would be like sixth or seventh best on the team," Miyakawa said. "And so I think that would be enough to move Gonzaga up maybe another spot or two, but he's not seen, according to my analytics, as being like a top three player on the team. So certainly, definitely an added bonus. But I don't think it'll massively change [Gonzaga's ranking] from 10th to fifth, for example."

Who's going to be the most impactful newcomer to Gonzaga's ranks?

Seven of the Zags' projected top 10 rotational players for the 2025-26 campaign didn't play for them last season. And of those "newcomers", Arizona State transfer Adam Miller was the only one who played any sort of college basketball in 2024-25 (not counting Grant-Foster).

Of the new faces suiting up for Gonzaga this season, who will have the biggest impact?

"I think you have to look at at both Jalen Warley and Braeden Smith. Especially in the case of Smith, who hasn't played in a while. There's a pretty high variance attached to him in terms of, how good is he going to be? And so currently, I have him projected as the fourth best player on the roster, but realistically, he could be much better, much worse than that, just because it's been a while. And so I think that's a really big X factor for this team."

Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Braeden Smith (3). | Photo by Myk Crawford

"Another player who certainly has the potential to be a really, really big player is Mario Saint-Supéry. Obviously, one of the things that is tough for me to quantify is especially for either freshmen who were highly recruited out of high school but then missed their freshman year, or international players who are coming in; it's kind of hard to figure out exactly how to rate them. A lot of times, their rating going into season will be a little bit conservative, and so for a player like him, have him ranked, I think, as the eighth best player on the team going into the season. I know some Gonzaga fans would say, like, 'There's no shot, he's going to be a top five player because of how talented he is,' and that might end up being true."

"And if that's true, that's going to be a massive boost for this team. A lot of times, though, you do have players like him who, you know he hasn't played a single minute, people are really excited about him for a variety of reasons, and then it may or may not pan out."

Which Gonzaga player has the best chance of outperforming their preseason player rating?

EvanMiaya.com's algorithms take everything from recruiting rankings to statistics from international play, if applicable, when creating a BPR score for college freshmen. Even then, it can be difficult to project how a first-year player will perform given there's still plenty of unknown variables regarding their overall fit with their new team.

The Zags could have three freshmen log minutes this season, in addition to two players who took a redshirt year (Smith and Warley) and another who missed the past two season due to injury (Steele Venters).

With room for some variance, which Gonzaga player has the best chance at outperforming their preseason BPR score?

"I feel like the obvious answer for me probably would be Mario Saint-Supéry, just because there's so much more excitement around him than kind of where my projection has him."

"Another player potentially would be Steele Venters. People have been waiting to see the impact that he's gonna have on the court for Gonzaga and so again, if he ends up being a really healthy version of himself and is kind of what they wanted him to be when they brought him in, he could be great. So, I'm excited to see what he does as well."