Gonzaga drops to No. 5 seed in latest ESPN Bracketology

After dropping two games in a week, the No. 15 Gonzaga Bulldogs are hanging onto their hopes of playing in Spokane for the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

In the latest ESPN Bracketology by Joe Lunardi, the Zags (8-3) sit as a No. 5 seed in the West Region, down two seed lines from where they were before suffering a 76-63 loss to No. 5 UConn on Saturday. The defeat, coupled with a road letdown at Washington the week prior, has Gonzaga trending in the wrong direction after it was projected to be a 2-seed in the preseason bracketology.

The Bulldogs' current projection has them on pace for the program's lowest NCAA Tournament seed since it was an 11-seed in 2016. Gonzaga is 0-3 in Quad 1 games and ranked 36th in the NET Rankings, one of the primary tools the tournament selection committee uses when seeding teams. There will be two more opportunities to earn Quad 1 wins in nonconference action against San Diego State (Dec. 29) and at Kentucky (Feb. 10), which also checked in as a 5-seed in Lunardi's bracketology.

The Zags are the lone representative from the West Coast Conference, as Saint Mary's has fallen off Lunardi's list of bubble teams. The Gaels (6-5) picked up a much-needed win over ranked Colorado State earlier this month, though unwarranted letdowns to Weber State, Utah and most recently Boise State have them on the outside looking in.

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No. 17 BYU continues to climb the rankings amid a hot start to the 2023-24 season. Coincidently, the Cougars (10-1) are projected on the 4-seed line in the same bracket as the Bulldogs, creating a hypothetical matchup in the second round between the former WCC rivals in Spokane. BYU is No. 4 in the NET and No. 5 in KenPom.

On the 1-seed line, Lunardi has Purdue, Arizona, Kansas and UConn. Oklahoma jumped to the 2-seed line, joining Marquette, Houston and Tennessee. Creighton, which suffered a 15-point loss to UNLV, dropped to the 3-seed line.

As it stands, Gonzaga will have played five nonconference teams that qualify for the 2024 NCAA Tournament — Purdue, Washington, UConn, San Diego State and Kentucky. Washington, which hasn't made the Big Dance since 2019, came in as an 11-seed in Lunardi's update as a "Last Four Byes" team.