Gonzaga's NCAA Tournament hopes are slipping through its grasp after Santa Clara loss

The Gonzaga Bulldogs' margin for error is slim heading into the thick of West Coast Conference play.

After Adama-Alpha Bal's go-ahead basket with four seconds left sunk Gonzaga (11-5, 2-1 WCC) at Santa Clara (12-6, 3-0 WCC), 77-76, on Thursday, it became evident that the race to the top of the league standings is more wide-open than prognosticators thought at the start of the season. Collective struggles in nonconference play hinted that only one team would advance to the NCAA Tournament with an automatic bid from winning the conference tournament, and two weeks into league play, that sentiment is likely true.

Gonzaga's at-large resume doesn't stand out. Ranked 47th in the NET, the team is 0-4 in Quad 1 games with its best win of the season thus far coming over Syracuse, which is also 0-4 in Quad 1 games and is ranked 75th in the NET. For context, Quad 1 games are against any opponent ranked between 1-35 at home, 1-50 on neutral courts and 1-75 in true road games.

For the Bulldogs, that means they'll need to start taking care of business on the road to boost their resume. As of now, there are three more Quad 1 games on the schedule — at Kentucky (Feb. 10), at San Francisco (Feb. 29) and at Saint Mary's (March 2). Home games against the Dons (Jan. 25) and Gaels (Feb. 3) are slated to count as Quad 2 games.

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Based on KenPom's projected outlook, Gonzaga is expected to win just one of its remaining Quad 1 games. If so, it'll have a 1-6 record in Quad 1 games and a 4-1 showing in Quad 2 games at the end of the regular season. Depending on how the WCC standings shake out, the Bulldogs could pick up two more Quad 1 wins if they win the league tournament.

But if Gonzaga slips up in Las Vegas, it'll run the serious risk of not hearing its name called on Selection Sunday. Last season, Utah State (0-4 in Quad 1) was the only team to secure an at-large bid without a Quad 1 win, though the Aggies were 7-1 in Quad 2 and 13-0 in Quad 3 games. Illinois (2-9 Quad 1, 7-1 Quad 2) and Auburn (2-9 Quad 1, 6-1 Quad 2) were in a similar boat in terms of resume.

Of the three aforementioned teams, only one (Auburn) won a game in the Big Dance.

It's not a foregone conclusion that the Bulldogs need to win out in WCC play, but they can't afford slip-ups like Thursday's loss. ESPN Bracketology has Gonzaga still on the 9-seed line after losing to Santa Clara, while FOX Sports and CBS Sports have the Bulldogs on the outside looking in as a bubble team.