NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Gonzaga officially on the bubble
The repercussions of last week's loss at Santa Clara have put the Gonzaga Bulldogs' at-large hopes of reaching the 2024 NCAA Tournament in jeopardy.
Following the 77-76 setback to the Broncos, Gonzaga is outside the 68-team field and among the "first four out" teams in the latest ESPN Bracketology released Tuesday. The Bulldogs (11-5, 2-1 WCC) are team No. 69 on ESPN's board, which has Saint Mary's earning the West Coast Conference's automatic bid and earning the No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region. The Gaels were picked to win the league in the coaches' preseason poll, but no one could have foreseen Gonzaga sitting on the bubble just three games into conference play.
Based on the resume, though, Lunardi's outlook can be justified. The Bulldogs are a combined 2-5 in Quad 1 and 2 games as the 50th-ranked team in the NET. Both Saint Mary's (No. 31) and San Francisco (No. 43) rank higher among WCC teams. Gonzaga has also yet to win on the road (0-2).
There will be more opportunities to climb the ranks as league play wears on. Gonzaga will close the regular season with two Quad 1 games — at San Francisco (Feb. 29) and at Saint Mary's (March 2) — along with a pair of Quad 2 games against the Dons (Jan. 25) and the Gaels (Feb. 3) at home in between. Of course, the Feb. 10 matchup at Kentucky will be an immense opportunity to keep the Bulldogs' at-large hopes alive.
Elsewhere, a crazy week of upsets across the country caused a lot of movement at the top of Lunardi's Bracketology. North Carolina (13-3, 5-0 ACC) and Kansas (14-2, 2-1 Big 12) moved up to the 1-seed line, joining UConn (15-2, 5-1 Big East) and the field's top overall seed Purdue (15-2, 4-2 Big Ten). Houston (14-2, 1-2 Big 12) fell to the 2-seed line after back-to-back losses in league play while Arizona (12-4, 3-2 Pac 12) also dropped down one line following its loss at Washington State.
Six of the eight 3- and 4-seed lines remained the same, with the exceptions being Baylor (14-2, 3-0 Big 12) moving up as a No. 3 seed and Memphis (15-2, 4-0 AAC) ascending to the 4-seed line. Kentucky occupies the No. 3 seed in the West Region, which also has San Diego State (No. 6 seed) and Arizona in Lunardi's update. The Aztecs (14-3, 3-1 MWC) dropped down to their current position following an 18-point loss to New Mexico.
In a turn of events, Lunardi has the Gaels (13-6, 4-0 WCC) playing their first-round game at the Spokane Arena in a hypothetical matchup with Oklahoma in the Midwest Region. Gonzaga was projected to play in Spokane earlier in the season before its loss to San Diego State.
