NCAA Tournament Bracketology update: Gonzaga on the bubble as 'First Four Out' team
The Gonzaga Bulldogs drastically improved their at-large chances of qualifying for the 2024 NCAA Tournament following their 89-85 upset win at Kentucky, though there's still work to be done in West Coast Conference play before those hopes become a reality.
In the latest ESPN Bracketology update from Joe Lunardi, Gonzaga (18-6, 8-2 WCC) moved back onto the bubble as a "First Four Out" team, with Wake Forest just ahead as Lunardi's first team out. Before Saturday's stunner at Rupp Arena, the Bulldogs weren't even listed in the "Next Four Out" category.
Oh, how a program's postseason hopes can change with a single Quad 1 victory. Gonzaga lacked a true signature win when it headed down to Lexington, Kentucky, with the reality that its most realistic shot of making the NCAA Tournament would have to come via the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas next month. That still might be the case, as Lunardi projects Saint Mary's (20-6, 11-0 WCC) will claim the league's automatic bid and earn an 8-seed in the South Region.
The Bulldogs, who fell 64-62 to the Gaels at The Kennel earlier this month, will head down to Moraga, California, for a rematch on March 2 to close the regular season.
Similar to Lunardi, CBS Sports college hoops expert Jerry Palm has Gonzaga outside the 68-team field as a "First Four Out" team. Ranked 24th in the NET, the Bulldogs would be the first team ranked in the top 25 of the NET and KenPom (19th) to miss the NCAA Tournament if Palm and Lunardi are correct in their predictions.
Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology projections give Gonzaga an 89.8% to go dancing in March and an 84.1% at an at-large bid. The Bulldogs have two more Quad 1 opportunities at San Francisco in the Chase Center (Feb. 29) and at the Gaels. Torvik and KenPom predict the Bulldogs will win at the Dons but fall at Saint Mary's before the WCC Tournament.
Elsewhere, Washington State (18-6, 9-4) has emerged as a strong candidate to earn an at-large bid out of the Pac-12, as the Cougars are 40th in the NET and are 8-5 in Quad 1 and 2 games combined. WSU, which hasn't gone dancing since 2008 when Tony Bennett was in Pullman, is riding a five-game win streak and will play five of its last seven games at home, plus a Quad 1 opportunity at No. 5 Arizona on Feb. 22. The Cougars could fall between a 9- or 7-seed based on Lunardi and Palm's respective projections.
Eastern Washington (16-8, 10-1 Big Sky) is in position to qualify for the NCAA Tournament for just the fourth time in program history. The Eagles could fall in either the 15- or 14-seed line based on Lunardi and Palm if they can win the Big Sky Tournament for the second time in the last four years.
If the Eagles, Cougars and Bulldogs take care of business the rest of the way, there's a possibility that all three major Division-I men's basketball programs from Eastern Washington qualify for the NCAA Tournament. That's never happened before and would be quite an achievement for the Inland Northwest.
