Why Illinois Basketball Must Avoid a Close-Game Situation With Michigan

The Wolverines have excelled at closing out games, with their last nine wins coming by four points or less

Feb 25, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts with player Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois’ next opponent – No. 15 Michigan – has won eight of its last nine contests, and is knotted with No. 8 Michigan State for first place in the Big Ten.

But of those eight wins, and even going back to Michigan’s win prior to that (80-76 in overtime over Northwestern), the Wolverines were in clear control of none of those games.

Not since a 91-75 thrashing of Washington on Jan. 12 has Michigan won a game by more than four points.

Is that a knock on the Wolverines? 

Not at all. 

In fact, having the ability to win close games can be a tell-tale sign of success in March.

Pulling out that many nail-biting wins certainly shows a level of resilience, grace under pressure and understanding of late-game requirements. But for what it’s worth, KenPom does have the Wolverines listed as the 46th “luckiest” team in college basketball – and second-luckiest in the Big Ten.

Nonetheless, Michigan is 22-6 (14-3 Big Ten) and has rolled through its conference slate.

As for the Illini, they’re 18-11 (10-8 Big Ten) and in the midst of an up-and-down patch, having gone just 6-8 over their last 14 games.

As for the ability to close out games, Illinois has been so-so at best, going 3-3 in outings decided by five points or fewer. It's worth noting that two of those wins (Washington and UCLA) involved nearly squandering double-digit leads, and the Illini have fallen in a pair of other matchups (Northwestern and Michigan State) after leading by 10 or more.

On one hand, you have arguably the best close-game team in the country (Michigan), and on the other, perhaps one of the worst (Illinois).

And the biggest difference between these two squads?

Experience.

The Wolverines are led by a starting lineup of two graduate students and a trio of juniors, while the Illini’s top three leading scorers are all in their first season of college basketball.

The kid came to play.

15 PTS
7 REB
2 STL
2 AST pic.twitter.com/FoGxsS4q2u

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) February 26, 2025

All season long, teams have jumped out to big leads over Michigan (including Rutgers, which on Thursday led UM by as much as 13), but the Wolverines always stay within striking distance, sticking around before clawing back in and sneaking out a win.

Meanwhile, Illinois has a tendency to do just the opposite, building a lead of its own before slowly letting an opponent back into the game and ultimately collapsing.

On Sunday, if the Illini can leap out to a double-digit lead at the Crisler Center, they must do what they have done too rarely this season – put their foot full-throttle to the gas or risk a close battle with a Wolverines squad built to thrive in that situation.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Basketball Rises in KenPom Rankings With Lockdown Defense vs. Iowa

The Key Adjustment That Unlocked a New-Look Illinois Basketball Defense

Former Illini Terrence Shannon Jr. Rocks Huge Slam in Another Career Night