Best- and Worst-Case Scenario for Illinois' Stefan Vaaks in 2026-27

Signs point towards Stefan Vaaks emerging as a star in 2026-27, but history also tells a more discouraging story

Feb 14, 2026; Providence, Rhode Island, USA; Providence College Friars guard Stefan Vaaks (7) dribbles during the first half of the game against the St. John’s University Red Storm at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Natalie Reid-Imagn Images | Natalie Reid-Imagn Images

Over the past two offseasons, Illinois has prioritized quality over quantity in the transfer portal. Gone are the days of the Illini bringing in four or five transfers at once. In 2025, the number was two – and it paid off as Brad Underwood’s squad earned a Final Four berth behind notable contributions from both Andrej Stojakovic (Cal) and Zvonimir Ivisic (Arkansas).

In 2026, the quality appears to be so good that Illinois plucked only one piece from the portal: guard Stefan Vaaks (Providence). Here is our projection of the best- and worst-case scenario for Vaaks’ 2026-27 season in Champaign:

Projecting the best outcome for Illinois' Stefan Vaaks in 2026-27

Mar 12, 2026; New York, NY, USA; Providence Friars guard Stefan Vaaks (7) controls the ball against St. John's Red Storm guard Dylan Darling (0) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Vaaks’ estimated stats: 16.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists on 42/38/85 shooting splits
Illinois’ projected record: 31-6

In a dream scenario, here is how Vaaks’ first season in Champaign plays out: He settles in quickly, splits backcourt duties with freshman Quentin Coleman and serves as the de facto action-creator on the perimeter.

Vaaks has already proven that he thrives in ball-screen action. Ideally, that translates to Illinois, where he’ll have a handful of dream pick-and-roll partners at his disposal between David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic and Zvonimir Ivisic, to name a few.

Then, with such a talented roster surrounding him, Vaaks likely won’t draw as much defensive attention, allowing him to get cleaner looks from deep, which, in turn, should result in his three-point percentage climbing. 

As for the overlooked aspect of his game which is in desperate need of improvement – rebounding – Vaaks should have that straightened out by Underwood. There is no way around it: 2.5 rebounds per game in 31.5 minutes at 6-foot-7 is flat-out embarrassing. That will not fly with the Illini, who have been one of the nation’s top rebounding outfits since Underwood took over in Champaign. 

Long story short: if Vaaks flourishes as a playmaker in Illinois’ free-flowing scheme, takes advantage of open looks from deep, improves his efficiency and takes a step forward on the glass, he and the Illini will be in an excellent position next season – likely a nation-title competing position. 

Projecting the worst outcome for Illinois' Stefan Vaaks in 2026-27

Feb 14, 2026; Providence, Rhode Island, USA; Providence College Friars guard Stefan Vaaks (7) dribbles during the second half of the game against the St. John’s University Red Storm at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Natalie Reid-Imagn Images | Natalie Reid-Imagn Images

Vaaks’ estimated stats: 12.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists on 40/32/82 shooting splits
Illinois’ projected record: 24-10

As for the pessimistic outlook, Vaaks may actually slide backwards as a shooter next year. Andrej Stojakovic’s three-point percentage dropped seven percent from 2024-25 to 2025-26. The decline for Zvonimir Ivisic was nearly 10 percent. For reasons that aren't entirely clear, this has been a hard trend for recent transfers. In 2024-25, Ben Humrichous’ three-point percentage fell more than seven percent in his first go-round in Champaign. Kylan Boswell’s plummeted more than 13 percent that same season. The list goes on.

Given the pattern, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Vaaks’ numbers also slip – which would put the Illini in a tough spot. They need a knockdown shooter. Yes, Jake Davis is that. But a player who is a dynamic offensive threat capable of hitting a step-back three or getting to the rim and finishing among the trees is necessary for Illinois’ offensive scheme to function (think Kasparas Jakucionis or Keaton Wagler).

EURO FRESHMAN TAKES OVER‼️

Stefan Vaaks drops 16 points in 2nd off the bench at MSG 🔥 Vaaks hit 4 big threes late in the game pic.twitter.com/yUdDl5CKoK

— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) January 3, 2026

If Vaaks isn’t hitting his triples at a respectable rate, the Illini offense may crumble. The good news: Vaaks led the Big East in three-pointers made and attempted a year ago. He can really shoot it. Still, his efficiency will be an intriguing storyline to monitor next season.

Next up: the rebounding. Can Underwood transform Vaaks into even just an average rebounder? He doesn’t have to be a superstar in that area, but he must at least be solid. If history is any indication, Underwood will whip him into shape.

But if not, and if that long-distance jumper isn’t falling for Vaaks, it could be a long, frustrating season for both he and the Illini. Even under those circumstances, though, a top-five finish in the Big Ten and a second-weekend appearance in the NCAA Tournament would seem to be the expectation.