Ceilings and Floors: How Much Uncertainty Surrounds Illinois' 2025-26 Season?

Illinois basketball has been known for many things over the past 12 months: talent, excitement, potential. But consistency, predictability, certainty? Not exactly hallmarks of last year's Illini, who began the season outside the top 25, soared as high as No. 13 and then finished the season on the outside looking in.

A neutral-site upset of Arkansas was followed by a dud at Northwestern. A razor-thin loss to then-No. 1 Tennessee on the road fed into a five-game winning streak, which was promptly ended by a home flop against USC. Down the stretch, Illinois sandwiched beatdowns by Maryland (twice!) and Duke around massive wins over Michigan and Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament. Say this for the 2024-25 Illini: They always kept you guessing.

So with coach Brad Underwood and his staff back again with a roster built in a fashion similar to that of last season's crew, we should expect another wild ride in 2025-26, right? Maybe not. As statistician and hoops analytics guru Evan Miyakawa calculated in his recent"2025 Preseason Ceiling and Floor Team Outcomes" piece, this season's Illini feature some of the least uncertainty of any team in college basketball.

Three reasons Illinois should deliver as expected in 2025-26

I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team.

You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 https://t.co/uRxwBmV9DN
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) October 23, 2025

According to Miyakawa, Illinois – which has a preseason rank of No. 9 according to his analytics model – has a ceiling of No. 3 and a floor of No. 42 for the upcoming season. But neither the high nor low end are the most important number in this case. Miyakawa ran 10,000 season simulations through his model and found the Illini's median ranking – an aggregate that yields a "middle" value – to be No. 14. Despite outliers on the extreme ends (No. 3 and No. 42), the Illini saw some of the fewest (and least severe) fluctuations from their median number than those of any other CBB program.

Skeptical of the numbers? (Look, we're not mathematicians, either.) Here's a quick breakdown with practical analysis that suggests Illinois could be one of college basketball's most trustworthy teams this coming season:

Illinois guard Kylan Boswell — Mar 23, 2025; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) drives against Kentucky Wildcats forward Andrew Carr (7) during the second half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

1. Experience

Although the Illini will again rely on international talent and some talented freshmen as core contributors, their overall experience level – especially concentrated at key positions – is far greater than it was last season.

Point guard Kasparas Jakucionis and wing Will Riley – perhaps Illinois' best players in 2024-25 – and center Tomislav Ivisic (the only other player in that conversation) – were all first-year college players. Jakucionis and Riley were still teenagers. Even the most seasoned Illini (Kylan Boswell, Ben Humrichous and Tre White) were new to the team and feeling out their new roles.

This season will be different. Boswell is Illinois' unquestionable team leader. Ivisic is a rock in every sense, a North Star everyone in the program knows can be counted on to point the way. Point guard Mihailo Petrovic is a 22-year-old with extensive pro experience. Zvonimir Ivisic – Tomislav's twin brother – has already battled the NCAAs best at Kentucky and Arkansas. Freshmen David Mirkovic and Brandon Lee are beyond their years physically and mentally.

2. Chemistry

At the risk of overselling the Balkan connection, the Illini should be at least a step or two ahead of the competition in terms of team-building. The Ivisic brothers are twins, for heaven's sake, and Mirkovic was their former teammate. Petrovic grew up around that trio, playing against them in international competition. Illinois has already felt the influence of European culture and basketball style on the floor and otherwise.

The bond is stronger between famILLy.

The second episode of "Every Day Guys" features twin centers, Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic, and their trust with each other and the Illinois Basketball staff. pic.twitter.com/RDcma2pHnB
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) October 9, 2025

"It's great that a lot of them share common cultures, even among themselves," Humrichous said of the Illini internationals on Big Ten Men's Basketball Media Day. "But also, the great blessing is how much I've watched us embrace who they are in their culture. Kylan and Jake Davis have been great – just two dudes I can think of [who are] like, 'We love what you do. We love how you play basketball, but you're just a great dude – and so I want to put my arm around you.' And so it helps them feel more comfortable in this transition."

3. Versatility

For much of last season, Illinois' talents were siloed. The offense? Ran through Jakucionis. Three-point shooting? Heavily reliant on individual playmaking. The lineup? Underwood had to make a lot of hard choices at individual positions, often giving away shooting for shot blocking and rebounding at power forward (Morez Johnson Jr.) and defense for scoring on the wing (Riley), for example.

The 2025-26 Illini are nearly positionless and figure to be much more free-flowing on offense. Petrovic is capable of serving as the driving force, but Mirkovic appears to be a playmaking revelation and the last year's offense was never more potent than when it ran through Tomislav Ivisic. More ball movement, dangerous three-point shooters at all five spots and the ultimate flexibility of play – Illinois ran pick-and-roll with Boswell as the screener and Mirkovic handling against Illinois State – should allow these Illini to survive injuries and matchup puzzles as capably as any outfit in college basketball.

Back-to-back treys for Bam 👌👌

Subscribe/watch on B1G+ pic.twitter.com/bGNPlg5fgC
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) October 19, 2025