ESPN's Analytics Reveal Strong Prediction in Illinois vs. Nebraska Matchup

The Illini, who have won back-to-back contests, will face an undefeated Cornhuskers team. Who is the favorite?

Nov 14, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood greets the crowd before the tip of the game with the Colgate Raiders at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

On Saturday afternoon (3 p.m. CT, Peacock), No. 13 Illinois (8-2, 1-0 Big Ten) will host No. 23 Nebraska (10-0, 1-0 Big Ten) in Champaign for an early-season ranked-on-ranked Big Ten showdown.

The Cornhuskers made their season debut in the AP poll this Monday. Two days later, they dismantled – by 30 points – a Wisconsin club that entered the season ranked in the top 25, knocking off the Badgers 90-60 in Lincoln.

Blood in the water. 🦈📹https://t.co/LKzCqN3tcz

— Nebraska Men's Basketball (@HuskerMBB) December 11, 2025

ESPN's matchup predictor makes its pick for Illinois-Nebraska

Nov 29, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg watches from the sideline during the first half against the South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Yet on Saturday, according to ESPN’s analytics, the odds are not at all in Nebraska’s favor. The matchup predictor gives Illinois a 77.5 percent chance of staving off the visitors this weekend.

And it makes sense for two key reasons: 1) Home-court advantage. Playing at home, especially in Big Ten action, already gives any team a massive leg up. For example, the Illini, despite losing 14 conference games over the past two seasons, have just five league losses on their home floor during that stretch.

2) Illinois is really good.

The AP poll doesn’t always reflect reality. Both of these clubs may, in fact, be better than their respective rankings in that poll. Nevertheless, the difference between the No. 20 team and the No. 25 team isn’t nearly as drastic as the difference between the No. 5 and No. 10 team.

The Illini should absolutely dominate the Cornhuskers on the glass. Given the relative shortcomings of Brad Underwood’s squad in that department in its past few outings, it’s possible the margin is closer than it should be, but Illinois will undoubtedly control the boards to at least some extent.

And given the level the Illini defense has been operating at, specifically on first attempts in each possession, the Cornhuskers are going to find points extremely tough to come by. Offensively, Illinois will surely rely heavily on its talent once again, staying away from any complex schematic design and simply letting its players operate.

As the old adage goes: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. And with an Illinois offense currently ranked No. 5 in KenPom in terms of efficiency, it very clearly isn’t broken. 

As Nebraska has done all season thus far to its opponents, Fred Hoiberg’s unit figures to make the Illini appear somewhat less than. But between the size and talent disparity, not to mention the home-floor advantage, Illinois will still very likely put an end to Nebraska’s exceptional undefeated start – even if it is a tighter battle than the Illini would like.