Illinois Climbs Up KenPom Rankings After Impressive Road Win at Ohio State

The Illini, who are now on a two-game winning streak, continue to inch ahead in KenPom, one of college basketball's most renowned metrics

Dec 9, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) celebrates as time winds down on the win against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Before Illinois’ Black Friday loss against UConn, the Illini had been a KenPom darling, consistently ranking much higher in the well-respected metric than in the AP poll or any college basketball pundit’s personal evaluations.

But after that misstep against the Huskies, Brad Underwood’s club dropped towards the back end of the top 20 in the judgment of the analytical tool, which is used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee every March.

Illinois’ previously potent offense was stifled by Dan Hurley and his Huskies, and the numbers reflected that. But after a get-right win over Tennessee, a contest in which Illinois impressed on both ends, and then an efficient showing in a win over Ohio State on Tuesday night, the Illini climbed back into the top 10.

Where does Illinois rank in KenPom?

Dec 6, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood yells to his bench against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

As of Wednesday morning, Illinois ranks No. 9 in KenPom, good for third in the Big Ten – with only No. 1 Michigan and No. 6 Purdue rated higher than Underwood’s unit.

Ahead of the outing against the Buckeyes, the Illini ranked No. 11 in KenPom, and had the eighth-rated offense. But following the victory, Illinois’ offense is up to No. 5, surely aided by a 40.7 percent showing from deep and a 90.6 percent performance at the free-throw line.

How accurate is KenPom in this case?

Although it’s a welcome sight to see KenPom so high on Illinois, it’s yet another reminder of the shortcomings of analytics in today’s data-driven era of sports. 

Illinois’ offense climbed from its performance in the Big Ten opener – but did it deserve to? More stagnant, isolation-based offense resulting in semi-contested jumpers that just so happened to fall isn’t exactly an ideal performance. How often is freshman forward David Mirkovic, who entered the game shooting below 30 percent from deep, going to connect on 4 of 5 triples?

Sure, the box score numbers look pretty solid. Eighty-eight points and sterling percentages will always be a desirable result. But what about the process behind getting those numbers, the sustainability? Is such a performance consistently replicable – or did the Illini just catch fire?

Also: Defensively, Illinois dropped from No. 17 in KenPom to No. 24 in terms of efficiency. But did the Illini deserve to fall? Ohio State guard Bruce Thornton may have lit them up for 34 points, and the Buckeyes may have scored 80 points, but Illinois played great defense.

Ohio State was forced into tough shots, but on Tuesday night, the Buckeyes – and especially Thornton – were just ... on. But, again, sometimes the ball is just dropping, despite whatever the defense is or isn't doing.

At the end of the day, Illinois’ overall spot of No. 9 in KenPom seems fairly spot-on. Still, the individual breakdown of the offense (No. 5) and defense (No. 24) may be a bit off. But that’s what the analytics get you. If the Illini can stay on the right side of the metrics (also No. 10 in Bart Torvik), they will be rewarded come Selection Sunday, which, in the end, is all that truly matters.