ESPN BPI Picks Favorite for Illinois Basketball vs. Texas Tech

The analytics are leaning ever so slightly in one direction for the Illini's Tuesday night visit to Lubbock, Texas, and matchup with the Red Raiders

Nov 5, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the first half against the Penn Quakers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tuesday features a top-25 college basketball showdown in Lubbock, Texas, between Illinois and Texas Tech. In the vast majority of outings between a pair of high-level clubs, whichever squad is at home tends to be the favorite – but not in this one, at least according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.

ESPN’s BPI predicts Illinois basketball at Texas Tech

Nov 2, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood before the tip off against the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Per ESPN’s BPI metric, the Illini have a 55.8 percent chance of knocking off the Red Raiders on the road. In the BPI rankings, Illinois is slotted as the No. 3 team in the country. Texas Tech is No. 13.

Is ESPN’s projection of Illinois at Texas Tech a fair assessment?

Oct 23, 2026; Lexington, KY, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland yells across the court during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In one word: no. Texas Tech is good, but Illinois is great. Both teams are down an All-American – the Illini are without David Mirkovic and the Red Raiders are missing JT Toppin – but the home squad is less balanced.

Last season, Texas Tech relied very heavily on Toppin (just check the box score from the outing in Champaign). In 2026-27, it’ll do the same – though not against the Illini. For now, Toppin isn't available. As for Illinois, it will certainly benefit from the return of Mirkovic, whenever that time arrives, but it doesn’t need that addition the way the Red Raiders need Toppin back.

Also, it’s just a bad matchup for Texas Tech. Its defense is fine, but locking down is not the calling card of Grant McCasland’s team (nor is rebounding, which is problematic against a jumbo-sized Illini team that is typically voracious on the boards).

The Red Raiders can score, though. They have a talented roster – especially on the perimeter (former fan favorite Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn now stars at Texas Tech), where the Illini are often vulnerable defensively.

But offense vs. offense in this game would mean one thing: massive advantage, Illinois. Brad Underwood has the best offensive team in the country – and by a fairly wide margin. Texas Tech cannot get into a shootout with this team. It’s a recipe for disaster – yet there may be no alternative for a Red Raiders team that lacks a stingy defense.

Is it impossible for Texas Tech to win this game? Not at all. It’s an early-season non-conference battle on the Red Raiders' home floor. In early November, every game is fairly unpredictable. And home-court advantage can never be glossed over.

But if you are forcing our hand, we’d put the number much closer to a 75 percent chance of an Illinois victory. This isn’t a pocket-pairs-vs.-two-overs in Texas Hold’em. The Illini flopped a straight, and the Red Raiders are just drawing to a backdoor flush.