ESPN Matchup Predictor Reveals Favorite for Illinois at Michigan State

ESPN's predictive metric is leaning in one direction for Illini-Spartans, set for Saturday night in East Lansing

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood motions to his team during the first half of the NCAA men's basketball game against the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus on Dec. 9, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two drastically different worlds are set to collide on Saturday night in East Lansing, Michigan (7 p.m. CT, FOX). Illinois, at the highest of highs, is riding a 12-game win streak and playing better basketball than arguably any squad in Division I basketball.

Meanwhile, Michigan State, which has lost two in a row, is on the verge of spiraling. After dropping a home game against in-state rival Michigan, the Spartans sought to get back on track at Minnesota – which entered the game 3-8 in Big Ten play and on a seven-game skid – but came up just short.

In the postgame, MSU coach Tom Izzo broached the topic of bringing star lead guard Jeremy Fears Jr. off the bench, after his widely discussed (shall we say, questionable?) plays – the latest of which resulted in a technical foul. Although that remains unlikely, it’s clear the Spartans are out of sorts and certainly not firing on all cylinders.

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. was given a technical foul on this play. pic.twitter.com/q03PMlmOzl

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 5, 2026

Tom Izzo addressed the possibility of benching Jeremy Fears after a costly technical foul in Michigan State’s loss to Minnesota 😬 pic.twitter.com/x8ZuGSfMQj

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) February 5, 2026

All signs point in one direction – an Illinois win to extend both squads’ respective streaks. But there is one key caveat: this contest takes place in the Breslin Center, a venue the Illini have conquered just once in more than a past decade.

ESPN's matchup predictor tabs favorite for Illinois at Michigan State

Jan 13, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood, left, shakes hands with Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo before the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

So which squad is considered the favorite? Well, per ESPN’s matchup predictor, there is a very slight favorite – and it’s the home squad. The metric gives Michigan State a 51.6 percent chance of staving off Illinois. In other words, the game is a coin flip.

Is it a fair assessment?

Jan 8, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Offense vs. defense. That’s what this matchup comes down to. Putting the “defense wins championships” mantra to the test, this outing will pit the nation’s top-ranked offense (Illinois) against the country’s fourth-ranked defense (Michigan State), according to KenPom rankings.

The main issue for the Spartans is that their offense has been incredibly stagnant of late, while the Illini defense has been fantastic. Considering the sky-high bar Illinois’ offense has set, expect points to be much tougher to come by than usual for Brad Underwood’s unit.

But given their across-the-board offensive firepower, the Illini should still find plenty of ways to score. And, defensively, they now have the capability to reliably handle the Spartans’ so-so offense.

Still, there’s no accounting for the tricks Izzo may have up his sleeve, nor the advantage created by a buzzing Michigan State crowd. Despite those wrinkles – and the findings of ESPN's metric – you would have to twist yourself into pretzels explaining how Illinois has anything other than the upper hand heading into Saturday night.