ESPN Predicts Illinois vs. Kentucky: Which Team Will Keep Dancing?

The Illini and Wildcats appear poised for a nail-biter, as ESPN has one squad as a very slight favorite

Mar 21, 2025; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Illinois guard Kylan Boswell (4) and Illinois guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) celebrate their victory over Xavier at the end of their first round NCAA men’ s basketball tournament game at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jovanny Hernandez/USA Today Network via Imagn Images / Jovanny Hernandez-Imagn Images

In Friday's NCAA Tournament first-round action, third-seeded Kentucky (23-11) blew past Troy 76-57, while sixth-seeded Illinois (22-12) cruised to an 86-73 win over Xavier. As a result, the Wildcats and Illini are set to meet Sunday (4:15 p.m. CT, on CBS) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee in what should be a high-paced Round of 32 matchup.

I was watching the Illini.

🆚 [3] Kentucky
🏆 NCAA Tournament
⏰ 4:15 p.m. CT
📍 Fiserv Forum
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/s3XExWkcFR

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 22, 2025

A 3 and 6 seed in the tournament typically are well-matched, but Kentucky and Illinois – two of the highest-scoring teams in Division I (both in the top 10) – resemble one another in several uncanny ways. If you consider that Illini center Tomislav Ivisic has a twin brother, Zvonimir, who played for the Wildcats last season (and who followed former UK coach John Calipari to Arkansas in the offseason), calling Illinois and Kentucky something close to mirror images doesn't sound all that wild.

Not surprisingly, then, ESPN’s Basketball Power Ranking (BPI) Predictions tool sees Sunday's matchup to be practically a coin flip, giving Kentucky a 52.6 percent chance of winning.

Although the teams will meet on a neutral site, it’s worth noting that Champaign is much closer to Milwaukee (224 miles) than Lexington is (465 miles). With what is arguably a quasi-home game, the Illini may have a slight upper hand. But as Wildcats coach Mark Pope pointed out, his squad has been here and done that.

“The Gonzaga game was essentially a neutral road game, so it felt very much like I think the gym will feel tomorrow [against Illinois],” he said in a Saturday press conference.

And why is it important to remember what happened when Kentucky met Gonzaga in Seattle?

Despite the Bulldogs being favored by the metrics (63.0 percent chance of winning), the Wildcats knocked them off in overtime, escaping with a 90-89 victory.

Although few atmospheres can recreate the NCAA Tournament, both squads are battle-tested and all but made for the moment. As ESPN’s analytics seemingly suggest, Kentucky-Illinois should be a thriller that just may go down to the wire.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Ernie Johnson on Illinois' Performance Against Xavier: 'You Believe in Illinois'

How to Watch: Illinois vs. Kentucky in NCAA Tournament Second Round

ESPN's Jeff Borzello Explains the Key for Illinois to Take Down Kentucky