ESPN Prediction for Illinois Basketball vs. Michigan State (Game 26)

The analytics are confident in the Illini's ability to defend their home court in Saturday's matchup

Jan 19, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Jaden Akins (3) drives into the paint against Illinois Fighting Illini forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) during the second half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

For every Division I college basketball game across the country, ESPN’s analytics-based Basketball Power Index (BPI) crunches the numbers, picks a winner and computes the win probability. In what may come as a surprise to some, BPI considers Illinois the favorite in its Saturday matchup against No. 11 Michigan State.

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ESPN's magic math machine puts Illinois' chances of taking down the Spartans at 65.6 percent and predicts a point differential of four points. That's one of the more favorable projections for a team in any of Saturday's top matchups (including Kentucky-Texas, Houston-Arizona and Auburn-Alabama). Naturally, one wonders how accurate ESPN’s predictions for Illinois and MSU have been to this point, so let’s take a closer look.

Through 25 games for the Illini, ESPN’s BPI has correctly picked the winner in 19 of those contests, with most of the missteps coming during the absence of either Kasparas Jakucionis or Tomislav Ivisic. And while ESPN’s analytics takes injuries into account, it can be hard to quantify the impact of a missing player – especially one of those two.

As for the Spartans, ESPN has accurately predicted 20 of their 24 games, with two of those incorrect picks coming over the past four games – both of which were Michigan State losses (at USC and at home against Indiana).

It's worth noting that ESPN gave the Spartans a 56.0 percent chance of beating the Illini last month in East Lansing – a prediction that proved to be true as Michigan State prevailed 80-78.

For Saturday’s matchup in Champaign, it appears the analytics are even more confident in Illinois’ ability to successfully defend its home court.

While Michigan State sits at 19-5 (10-3 Big Ten) and just outside the AP top 10, the unranked Illini have been scuffling a bit at 17-8 (9-6 Big Ten). Still, the metrics seem to support ESPN’s prediction.

The Illini land at 15th in KenPom's rankings, while Tom Izzo's Spartans lag several spots behind at 23rd. And the NET sees more of the same – but with an even wider disparity – as Illinois ranks 13th and Michigan State checks in at 24th.

Toss in the home-court advantage of State Farm Center (which should be at full tilt for this one), and it almost seems that ESPN's BPI doesn’t go quite far enough.

But as has been the case for nearly the past 30 years, it’s never a wise idea to bet against Izzo – especially when he’s on the cusp of history.

With a win in Champaign on Saturday, Izzo would pass Indiana’s Bob Knight for the most Big Ten men's basketball victories ever.

First, though, the Spartans will have to beat the odds (at least ESPN’s) and take down an Illini squad that is beginning to get healthy and build momentum at just the right time.

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