3 Big Questions for Illinois Basketball at Michigan State

The Illini's answer to these three questions may determine if they can pull off the upset

Jan 14, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) goes to the basket against Indiana Hoosiers center Oumar Ballo (11) during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The last time Illinois traveled to East Lansing, Michigan, was in February of last year. Ranked 10th in the country and in second place in the conference, the Illini took on a Michigan State squad that entered the contest with just a .500 record in Big Ten play. 

The Illini came into the matchup with Elite Eight-level talent and guns blazing. Terrence Shannon Jr. poured in 28 points. It didn’t matter.

Why?

Because it was East Lansing, and it’s a very rare occasion when the Spartans lose on their home floor. 

Last year was not one of those occasions, as the Illini fell 88-80 on the road. 

In its past six games at the Breslin Center, Illinois has struggled mightily – like every other team in the Big Ten – going 1-5 over that stretch, a trend the No. 19 ranked Illini (13-4, 5-2 Big Ten) will try to reverse Sunday (11 a.m. CT, on CBS) when they take on No. 12 Michigan State (15-2, 6-0).

Time for a Top 20 Big Ten showdown.

📅 Jan. 19
🆚 No. 12 Michigan State
⏰ 11 a.m. CT
📍 East Lansing, Mich.
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/iq8eXRiwA7

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) January 18, 2025

Whether or not Illinois is up to the task may ride on the answers to the following three questions:

Can the Illini slow the Spartans' transition attack?

Michigan State is led by sophomore point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., an offensive catalyst averaging 6.4 assists per game in just 23.3 minutes per game. Fears and his Spartans love to push the pace. Whether grabbing and going on a miss or turning a turnover into a bucket, they are dominant in the open court, putting up 19.1 fastbreak points per game – the best mark in the country. With the rim-running presence of forward Coen Carr, and the shooting ability of guards Jaden Akins (26 made threes) and Jase Richardson (43.8 percent from three), the Spartans have options around the basket and two serviceable threats on the perimeter in transition.  

Can Illinois force Michigan State into tough twos?

The Spartans' three-point percentage of 28.7 ranks worst in the Big Ten and near the bottom of all Division I teams. Defensively, the Illini prefer to run teams off the line, but given MSU’s hesitancy to shoot the deep ball in the first place, it seems Illinois’ style of defense may work in its opponents favor.

With the Spartans' 18.6 assists per game (seventh in the country), it would be quite uncharacteristic if Tom Izzo’s squad started forcing tough shots. But then again, they also haven’t seen a defensive squad like that of the Illini. Michigan State’s ability to get good looks may come down to Fears' creation – and whether or not Illini guard Kylan Boswell shuts down yet another elite perimeter talent.

Who will win the rebounding battle?

You knew this was coming. Over the past five years, Michigan State and Illinois have been the two premier rebounding squads in the Big Ten. And as they say, some things never change. This season, Illinois’ rebounding margin ranks first in the country (plus-12.4) while Michigan State checks in not too far behind, at eighth (plus-10.3). The Illini have lost the rebounding battle just twice this year (in losses to Tennessee and USC), while the Spartans have only one blemish (a loss to Kansas), seemingly making one thing crystal clear: whoever wins the rebounding battle wins the game.

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