Can Illinois and Brad Underwood Change Their NCAA Tournament Narrative?

Underwood has a volatile March Madness track record. Can he and the Illini combine consistency with high upside to make a deep run in 2026?

Nov 19, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood yells to his team during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Illinois’ Brad Underwood has been around the block. His first NCAA Tournament appearance as a head coach may have come just 12 years ago, but he has made nine more since, and on Thursday, he will take a spin in his 10th Big Dance as a head coach.

At all three of his stops – Stephen F. Austin, Oklahoma State and Illinois – Underwood has led his program to an NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma State, where he coached for just one year, was the only stop where he didn't win at least one game in the tournament.

And because of his mid-major experience, Underwood has been both David and Goliath. He has led the underdog club hoping to put together a Cinderella run, and he has also been the top dog. He has lived every March Madness cliche, and survived to tell the tale. Here’s a look at Underwood’s NCAA Tournament resume:

Brad Underwood pre-Illinois NCAA Tournament results

Stephen F. Austin, 2013-14: No. 12 seed upset No. 5 seed Virginia Commonwealth in the Round of 64 before falling to UCLA in the second round.

Stephen F. Austin, 2014-15: No. 12 seed lost to No. 5 seed Utah in the Round of 64.

Stephen F. Austin, 2015-16: No. 14 seed upset No. 3 seed West Virginia before falling to sixth-seeded Notre Dame in the Round of 32.

Oklahoma State, 2016-17: No. 10 seed lost by one to seventh-seeded Michigan.

Brad Underwood NCAA Tournament results at Illinois

Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

2020-21: No. 1 seed cruised past Drexel before losing to eighth-seeded Loyola in the Round of 32.

2021-22: No. 4 seed beat No. 13 seed Chattanooga by one point before a blowout loss to Houston in the Round of 32.

2022-23: No. 9 seed lost to No. 8 seed Arkansas in the Round of 64.

2023-24: No. 3 seed made an Elite Eight run before a huge loss to eventual national champions UConn.

2024-25: No. 6 seed knocked off No. 11 seed Xavier before falling to third-seeded Kentucky in the Round of 32.

Can Brad Underwood shift the tide in 2026?

Mar 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the second half against the Oregon Ducks at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois fans chalk up Underwood’s resume in March to a handful of heartbreaking losses. An inexcusable one-seed stumble in the Round of 32 – albeit to a massively under-seeded Loyola-Chicago club – then a disheartening showing in 2022, followed up by a first-round exit in 2023.

Finally, the Illini broke through in 2024 before yielding a historic 30-0 run to UConn in the Elite Eight – a game in which Illinois admittedly had no shot but could have been more competitive. During his time in Champaign, despite five NCAA Tournament appearances, Underwood has knocked off just one opponent with a higher seed (beat No. 2 seed Iowa State in 2024).

The narrative around Underwood-led teams is one of underachievement in the postseason. But in reality, Illinois’ head man has proven his ability to spring an upset – just not yet with the Illini. At Stephen F. Austin, he had a 12-over-5 upset, along with that colossal 14-over-3 victory, which he nearly followed up with a 14-over-6 win against Notre Dame (the Lumberjacks lost by one).

Although the 2025-26 Illinois squad – which earned a No. 3 seed – won't require any upsets to land in the Sweet 16, it may need to make some magic happen once it arrives there.

Given the Illini would likely see No. 2 seed Houston (in what would essentially be a home game for the Cougars) if they reach the Sweet 16, Underwood won’t be able to rely solely on his club’s talent and personnel. Schematic adjustments and in-game coaching will be the difference-maker in the Sweet 16 and beyond, if the Illini manage to keep trekking along.

Mar 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood works on his game plan before the first half against the Oregon Ducks at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Admittedly, Underwood hasn’t done much during his time in Champaign to convince the Illinois faithful that he’s capable of pushing his unit over the top, but his past track record shows he does have that ability.

And with a roster that appears to be the most talented Underwood has ever helmed, he certainly won’t be short on weapons in the arsenal. The 2026 NCAA Tournament is by no means do-or-die for Underwood (who was extended this past offseason), but it is his best opportunity to prove himself as not just a talent evaluator and recruiter but also as an executor. If he does that, Underwood will move from the thoroughly respected category to elite status among head coaches across the country.