ESPN Analytics Predict Illinois vs. Penn NCAA Tournament Matchup

The NCAA Tournament is such a special event because it breaks trends, curbs expectations and, sometimes, simply defies basketball logic. Upsets are the name of the game come March, which means everyone – regardless of seeding – is vulnerable.

No. 3 seed Illinois will face 14th-seeded Penn on Thursday night (8:25 p.m. CT, TNT) in Greenville, South Carolina, to start off its own Big Dance. An easy contest to overlook, the Illini-Quakers matchup is an afterthought in the minds of most college hoops fans and experts – but it’s not for Illinois head coach Brad Underwood.

“You have to get your guys to understand you’re playing a champion,” Underwood said on Sunday night. “You’re playing a team who cut down a net or has been in a power conference and been through a lot of the same battles. So never underestimate anybody. … So shame on you and shame on us if we overlook anybody.”

ESPN’s analytics predict Illinois-Penn in NCAA Tournament Round of 64

Feb 27, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood greets the crowd before the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Although that is undoubtedly the message every coach should be sending his club heading into March Madness, it’s not a sentiment backed by the analytics. Per ESPN’s matchup predictor, Illinois has a 97.3 percent chance of taking down Penn in the Round of 64.

Is ESPN’s prediction of Illinois-Penn fair?

Objectively, the Quakers do appear to not belong on any floor within a 100-mile radius of this Illini team. They lost by 25 points to Providence and by 27 to Villanova, although Penn did push Rutgers – which finished No. 14 out of 18 Big Ten teams – falling by just a point. (Worth noting: Illinois beat Rutgers by 26 points.)

Penn ranks No. 150 overall in KenPom, with an offense that ranks outside the top 200 – a bit unexpected considering its head coach is Fran McCaffery – and a defense outside the top 100. Top things off with an extremely undersized lineup, and there is practically zero way this Quakers club competes with the Illini – the tallest team in the nation.

On the flip side, it is March. Crazier things have happened. Just one example: UMBC was a 16 seed that climbed up to No. 166 in KenPom after its upset of No. 1 seed Virginia (second-ranked team in KenPom) back in 2018.

With that in mind, don't bet the house on anything at this time of year. That said, ESPN's numbers-crunching machine giving the Illini a chance north of 95 percent to win this game is hardly going out on a limb.