Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan State Locked in KenPom Logjam

On the heels of their road win at Purdue, the Illini have inched up to No. 4 in KenPom, battling it out with the Cyclones and Spartans

Jan 24, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) dribbles around Purdue Boilermakers guard Omer Mayer (17) during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images | Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

KenPom is widely considered the king of all college basketball metrics – the Holy Grail of hoops analytics. To reach the top of the KenPom mountain is a feat many would desire to achieve, but few ever do.

Illinois hasn’t reached that prestigious status yet this year – although the Illini did recently make KenPom history on one side of the ball. But if the consolation prize is the No. 4 spot in the rankings, Brad Underwood and his crew certainly won’t be filing any formal complaints.

Illinois leaps into top five of KenPom after Purdue win

Jan 21, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood greets fans as he enters the floor during pre-game introductions at State Farm Center in a matchup against the Maryland Terrapins.. Mandatory Credit: Fred Zwicky-Imagn Images | Fred Zwicky-Imagn Images

As of Sunday morning, less than 24 hours after Illinois’ thrilling tightrope escape act in West Lafayette, the Illini are rated the No. 4 team in the country, per KenPom – albeit by (literally) the slimmest of margins.

The top tiers of KenPom

Up at the top – in that crystal-clean, ultra-refreshing air at the peak of KenPom Mountain – stand Arizona and Michigan. The Wildcats lead the way with an adjusted efficiency margin of 35.95, but the Wolverines are hot on their tails with their own net rating of 35.91.

After a bit of a drop is Duke at No. 3, where the Blue Devils boast a net rating of 33.71. Then, two more whole numbers below, the Illini (31.25) can be found.

Slim margins separating Nos. 4 through 6

Jan 13, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood, left, shakes hands with Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo before the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Trailing Illinois by one hundredth is Iowa State at 31.24, which is just one hundredth ahead of Michigan State at 31.23. A logjam near the KenPom peak, the 4-through-6 range features three nearly identical teams in terms of prowess – at least according to the metric.

But arguably even more intriguing is how each member of that grouping climbed so high. The Illini have the top-rated offense in the country – but just the No. 29 defense. Meanwhile, Michigan State has the No. 1 defense – and the No. 48 offense.

Sandwiched in between is Iowa State, which, fittingly, has a great offense (No. 14) and great defense (No. 6) – although neither quite reach the elite tier.

Although KenPom’s rankings shift on a game-to-game basis and the margins can be heavily altered by a single performance, the logjam from No. 4 to 6 makes one thing crystal clear: the recipe for success in college basketball doesn’t have to be the same.

Illinois thrives on elite offense. Consider: The Illini allowed Purdue to shoot 56.9 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from deep and still won the game. On the same day, Michigan State held Maryland to just 33.3 percent from the field en route to a 43-point win.

Over in the Big 12, Iowa State rode solid offense (51.0 percent from the field) and defense (allowing Oklahoma State to shoot 39.3 percent) to a 13-point road win.

Different ingredients can lead to, essentially, the same final product. That said, if there's a style that is a bit more effective, we are set to soon find out – at least in the case of Illinois and Michigan State. (Mark the date: Feb. 7 in East Lansing.)