Illinois or Michigan State: Who Stands Atop the Big Ten Entering 2026-27?

The 2026-27 college basketball season tips off in less than a month. And it would be fair to say some fan bases – hey, we aren't pointing fingers, Illini fans – are counting down the days.

Illinois, widely viewed as a top-five preseason team and a national title contender, is entering the campaign with astronomically high expectations. One accomplishment very much within the Illini's reach: a Big Ten title.

Initially, their primary competition appeared to be Michigan and Michigan State. But with the Wolverines losing head coach Dusty May and projected starter Brandon McCoy (season-ending injury), Big Blue has slipped from the front of the pack. The Spartans, though, haven’t gone anywhere.

Should Illinois or Michigan State be Big Ten preseason favorite?

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts after a play against the UConn Huskies during the first half of a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

On Monday, the annual unofficial Big Ten basketball media poll, conducted by The Columbus Dispatch, was released. Illinois was named the favorite, with Michigan State hot on its heels. Let's take a deep dive into the debate – and finish with our take.

Why Illinois should be the 2026-27 Big Ten basketball preseason favorite

Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) celebrates after scoring Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against the VCU Rams at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

For years now, Illini coach Brad Underwood has been one of the nation’s best – if not the best – in terms of evaluating talent, acquiring it and tailoring an offensive scheme to fit his roster like a glove. The result: Illinois has hung around the top tier of the Big Ten like clockwork – just not at the top.

Last regular season, it was more of the same. The Illini finished fourth in the league after falling in five conference games – four of which were one-possession losses.

Then Illinois went on a tear (after, of course, yet another loss to a league foe – Wisconsin – in the Big Ten Tournament). The Illini trekked all the way to the Final Four, riding that bullet train of an offense and, more importantly, a rock-solid defense to go along with it.

Scoring hasn't been a concern for the Illini of late: Underwood finds elite scorers and playmakers, and he runs an effective system. But the defense last spring was a revelation. It changed everything in terms of the team's confidence and expectations.

Now consider who Illinois lost in the offseason: Keaton Wagler, Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous. In what may come as a suprise to some, Humrichous – with his long, sturdy frame, sneakily nimble feet and springs, and all-out effort – will be the defender missed the most in Champaign.

Wagler was solid, and much better towards the end of the season, though nothing special as a defender. Boswell had a reputation that rarely aligned with his actual effectiveness. And given that he stands 6-foot-2, his matchup potential on that end was somewhat limited.

The defensive personnel at Illinois is much-improved from last season. David Mirkovic should be better. Andrej Stojakovic will be even stronger on that end. Freshman Quentin Coleman has the potential to be a shutdown defender, and so does fellow freshman Lincoln Williams. The Ivisic twins haven’t gone anywhere (and Tomislav seems to have improved his ranginess).

If Illinois pairs the attention to detail and communication displayed in its 2026 NCAA Tournament run with this roster, there's no reason it can't be the best defensive team of the Underwood era – and one of the best in college basketball this season.

And the offense isn’t going anywhere. With an emphasis on scoring in transition, the Illini won’t have to work as hard for all their buckets this year. And in the halfcourt, they’ll be more multi-dimensional and an even tougher scout, considering they won’t be consistently living through Wagler ball-screen action.

There isn’t a team in the league at Illinois’ level in terms of across-the-board talent, experience and fit – especially when taking into account both ends of the floor. But there is a team in the vicinity, and it has its own claims to fame.

Why Michigan State should be the Big Ten basketball preseason favorite

As Charles Barkley might say, I have two words for you: Jeremy Fears Jr. and Tom Izzo. The scale may tip in the Illini’s direction when it comes to overall talent, but Michigan State has the top individual talent in Fears. And Fears just so happens to be guided by one of the greatest college basketball coaches ever – especially when it comes to the regular season.

In Izzo’s storied career, he has a mind-boggling 11 Big Ten regular-season championships. His name has become synonymous with March, but Izzo has arguably done even more impressive work in the months prior.

This season should be no different. Fears is the star of the show – and understandably so. But he’s hardly alone. Coen Carr, for one, is back.

And let’s not get it twisted: Carr may be known for his dunking, but he is so much more than a highlight waiting to happen. He’s an exceptional defender, a high-level rebounder, an elite rim runner and an uber-efficient finisher (over 60 percent shooting inside the arc in every year of his career).

Guards Jordan Scott and Kur Teng are returners as well. Cam Ward is in Year 2. Forward Jesse McCulloch has generated quite the buzz this offseason. Center Anton Bonke, a transfer from Charlotte, offers reinforcement in the frontcourt.

And the freshman class – headlined by Jasiah Jervis and Carlos Medlock Jr. – provides the Spartans with a level of depth they haven’t had in years. This is one of Izzo’s most talented teams. And it’s not exactly short on experience.

So … Illinois or Michigan State?

So let’s zoom out, check out the big picture. Both teams are really good, with Illinois likely poised to have the stronger offense and Michigan State, at least early in the season, the sturdier defense.

We’re not looking at a head-to-head matchup, though. It comes down to game-by-game consistency. Who can survive the grueling Big Ten schedule? Who can avoid getting beaten down? History says the right answer, between these two teams, is Michigan State.

And if the Illini and Spartans were equal on paper, or very close to it, then this would be a no-brainer: Izzo, seven times a week and twice on Sunday. But this isn’t a level playing field. At least entering the season – it’s always worth noting not a single game has been played – Illinois simply appears to be the better team.

It all circles back to one thing: the Illini’s (projected) defensive growth. Illinois’ offense is in a different stratosphere than Michigan State’s. But the same can almost always be said about the Spartans’ defense. And that was the case last year … until the NCAA Tournament.

Hence Illinois making a run to the Final Four and Michigan State’s season stalling in the Sweet 16. Pair the Illini’s stronger defensive personnel with that team growth – remember: 2025-26 was defensive coordinator Cam Crocker’s first year in Champaign – and they are instantly the more well-rounded team. The Big Ten is Illinois’ to lose. But it’s up to Underwood and his staff to ensure the Illini don’t drop the ball.

Add us as a preferred source on Google