Illinois’ Ugly Losses Are Teaching the Right Lessons at the Right Time

Illinois (22-6, 13-4 Big Ten) has stumbled through February the way you stumble down an icy driveway: You’re technically still upright, but it’s chaotic and everyone watching is convinced you’re about to face-plant. The Illini have piled up the kind of losses that make a fan base stare blankly at the wall and whisper, “How did that happen again?” – yet, somehow, beneath the frustration, the profile of a real title contender is still sitting there in plain sight.

Here is the top 20 teams on Torvik from Groundhog’s Day to now. These teams are preparing to hit their stride at the right time. https://t.co/XGsDfwqfkw pic.twitter.com/FmKIswJyGl
— TSB (@TSBBracketology) February 23, 2026

That’s what makes this stretch so maddening and so weirdly encouraging at the same time. The losses have been brutal: overtime loss at Michigan State, overtime loss at home to Wisconsin while down two starters, then the overtime gut punch at UCLA after Illinois once led by 23. Three losses, three heartbreaks and enough late-game chaos to make you wonder if the Illini are allergic to simple endings. If you want to argue that Illinois has issues, the evidence is right there on the scoreboard.

But if you want to argue that the season isn’t collapsing, the evidence is even more prevalant inside the numbers. Groundhog Day was Feb. 2, and since then Illinois is just 3-3 – which, on paper, looks like the definition of treading water. The difference is how they’ve looked in those games. According to Bart Torvik’s metrics, Illinois is second in the country in that time frame. Second. That doesn’t happen if you’re spiraling and playing bad basketball. It happens when you’re consistently performing at a high level possession to possession – defending, rebounding, creating quality looks – even if the end of the game keeps turning into a horror movie.

Big time triple from Ben Humrichous to tie things up at 84.

1:13 on the clock out of the timeout. pic.twitter.com/SJp3ik2aAq
— Ira Gorawara (@IraGorawara) February 22, 2026

Illinois isn’t losing because it is broken for 40 minutes. Illinois is losing because it wanders for four. The Illini have looked like a top-tier team for long stretches, and then, when the game tightens and every possession feels like it weighs a ton, they have been a half-step late on a rotation, a little too quick to settle, a little too loose with the details. That’s infuriating, but it’s also fixable. Late-game execution is film and habits. It's focus. It’s knowing exactly what you’re hunting on offense, what you’re willing to live with defensively and how to stay organized when an opponent becomes dangerously desperate.

And speaking of desperate: UCLA being projected as a 10 seed, per CBS Sports Bracketology, is part of why this loss might matter more than it seemed. That’s not just a random road game in February – it’s a preview of the kind of Round of 32 game that ruins a Sunday. A high-major 10 seed is almost always talented enough to at least have the potential to scare a top-tier club and play like its season is on the line – because it is. Illinois just got a rehearsal of that script with time left to learn from it, instead of watching it end their season on a neutral court in March.

Keaton Wagler basically said as much after the UCLA loss, sounding like a team leader who understands the bigger picture but isn’t ducking the lesson. “We’re not worried about this … we’re worried about March Madness,” Wagler said. “We want to win championships … and this won’t define our season. This is a good learning point for us, to get in and watch film and learn how we can get better.” That’s the right mentality – not pretending the loss didn’t happen, but treating it as a way to improve.

So yes, Illinois has stumbled through February. The Illini have made closing games look way harder than it needs to be. But the broader signs are still there: the efficiency numbers, the quality of play, the way they have been in control for large chunks, even in losses. The sky isn’t falling – Illinois is just getting a crash course on how small the margin is, and it’s better to get to studying now than showing up in March unprepared.