3 Things to Watch When Illinois Faces Iowa in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

Illinois is one step away from its first Final Four appearance since 2005 and its sixth all time. And just as no one predicted, No. 9 seed Iowa is in Illinois' way.

In their first year under coach Ben McCollum, Iowa is the modern-day NCAA Tournament Cinderella, with transfers from Drake and Robert Morris leading the way. Despite a 10-10 Big Ten record, with three straight losses to end the regular season, the Hawkeyes have gotten hot and upset No. 8 seed Clemson, No. 1 seed Florida and No. 4 seed Nebraska.

That sets up a classic Big Ten matchup with Illinois, which might be playing its best basketball of the season at the perfect time. The Illini impressed offensively against Penn and VCU before taking down last year's national runner-up Houston in a gritty defensive battle.

Illinois won its only regular season game against Iowa, 75-69, on Jan. 11 in Iowa City, where Keaton Wagler, Andrej Stojakovic and Kylan Boswell each scored at least 17 points.

In Saturday's rematch in Houston, here are three things to watch:

1. How will Iowa's slow pace affect Illinois?

Ben McCollum Iowa Basketball — Iowa Hawkeyes coach Ben McCollum during the Sweet Sixteen against Nebraska in the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Out of 365 Division I college basketball teams, just four play at a slower pace than Iowa, according to KenPom's adjusted tempo statistic. The Hawkeyes rarely push the ball in transition, preferring to run their halfcourt motion offense until they get a good look.

Across three NCAA Tournament games, Iowa has just 18 fastbreak points. It's ironic that two of the Hawkeyes' biggest shots of the season – a game-winning three-pointer against No. 1 seed Florida and a late dunk against No. 4 seed Nebraska – took just a few seconds to develop.

From Illinois' perspective, this shouldn't require much of an adaptation. The Illini play relatively slowly, too, ranking 286th in adjusted tempo. Perhaps the biggest concern about Iowa slowing the game down is that it limits the amount of possessions for a high-scoring team like Illinois to build a comfortable lead.

So if shots aren't falling, Illinois will theoretically have fewer opportunities to mount a comeback, if needed. It also works in the reverse, where Illinois could benefit in a big way from getting out to an early lead. Iowa is not a team that wants to play from behind, so the first five or 10 minutes could suggest a lot about how this game will go.

2. Will Bennett Stirtz stay cold from three-point range?

Bennett Stirtz Iowa — Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) dribbles against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the Sweet Sixteen in the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Illinois' defensive game plan will revolve around Iowa's All-Big Ten point guard Bennett Stirtz. He has played for McCollum dating back to their time at Drake and Northwest Missouri State, and is the focal point of everything Iowa's offense will try to do.

A 6-foot-4 senior, Stirtz averages 19.7 points, 4.4 assists, 2.6 rebounds and 1.4 steals, and it's unlikely he will come off the court Saturday night. He has played 37-plus minutes in all 20 games since Jan. 14, including 13 games in which he logged every possible minute.

The one downside to Stirtz's game of late has been his outside shooting. In three NCAA Tournament games, he's 6-for-28 (21.4 percent) from three-point range, a far cry from his 37.3 percent shooting from that distance in Big Ten play. It's incredible Iowa was able to defeat Florida with Stirtz going 0-for-9 from beyond the arc, but the Hawkeyes likely can't afford a repeat performance like that moving forward.

3. Can Illinois capitalize on its size advantage?

Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) grabs a rebound against the Houston Cougars during the Sweet Sixteen in the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Illinois has been a great rebounding team all season, and it validated that in a huge way Thursday by out-rebounding Houston 43-34 and grabbing nine offensive rebounds. That's perhaps the biggest reason to have confidence Illinois can defeat Iowa and advance to the Final Four.

Iowa doesn't have nearly as much size and muscle on the glass as Houston, and more importantly, Illinois. The Hawkeyes rank outside the top 325 in offensive, defensive and total rebounds per game, in part because they play so many low-possession games, leading to fewer rebounding opportunities.

But simply from a matchup perspective, Illinois should feel good about its advantage from a height and rebounding standpoint. Iowa doesn't have a player in its rotation taller than 6-foot-9, whereas Illinois has two 7-footers, plus size and length at every position.