Staff Picks: Who Wins No. 3 Seed Illinois vs No. 14 Seed Penn?

College basketball's annual dance begins Thursday, and third-seeded Illinois could be poised for a run starting with its first-round matchup against No. 14 Penn at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina (8:25 p.m. CT, TNT), in the South Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

The Illini (24-8), having gone 4-5 over their past nine games – including enduring a one-and-done bouncing from the Big Tournament – aren't exactly burning rubber into the postseason. The Quakers (18-11), on the other hand, have never been hotter, coming up big in two overtime wins in the Ivy League Tournament to take the conference prize and automatic bid.

But for Penn to win its sixth game in a row and keep a dream season alive in former Iowa coach Fran McCaffery's first year in Philadelphia, it may have to topple a giant of an Illinois roster without the help of both of its leading scorers, Ethan Roberts (concussion) and TJ Power (illness). Fourteen-over-three upsets pop off every now and again, but the degree of difficulty now faced by the Quakers in this matchup may be unlike that any similar seed has seen before.

Still, it's Cinderella season, so who knows? Our crack Illinois on SI staff believes they do. Check out our predictions for Illinois-Penn below:

Jason Langendorf

If Illinois was ever going to lock in this season, the time has come. But even if the Illini shuffle their way through this one, the undersized and outgunned Quakers were going to be up against it. Now, without Roberts (16.9 points per game) and perhaps Power (16.8)? They simply don't stand a chance. On to the next, Illinois.

Prediction: Illinois 89, Penn 63

It starts with one.

📆 March 19
🏆 NCAA Tournament Round 1
🆚 [14] Penn
⏰ Approx. 8:25 p.m. CT
📍 Greenville, SC
📺 TNT pic.twitter.com/D7GRNbamwI
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 18, 2026

Steve Greenberg

The Quakers finished third in the Ivy League, which is like finishing third in a hotdog-eating contest behind the bikini model and the pescatarian. Don’t bore me with stats or X’s and O’s here, please. Again: third in the Ivy. If the Illini don’t blow out the third nerds, something is seriously amiss.

Prediction: Illinois 91, Penn 68

Jackson Langendorf

Penn needed a heroic Keaton Wagler-at-Mackey Arena-like performance from Power to escape Yale in overtime of the Ivy League title game. That tells us two things: 1) Power is a player (he is a former top-20 high school recruit), and 2) Penn may need otherworldly performances from Power – and likely others – to even compete with Illinois. Is it possible? No. The Illini should roll.

Prediction: Illinois 87, Penn 62

Pranav Hegde

Illinois is not exactly entering March at full strength or full confidence, but the talent gap in this matchup is still hard to ignore. Penn has enough shot-making to hang around for a bit, especially if TJ Power gets rolling early, but Illinois should have the size, athleticism and overall firepower to take control. If the Illini stay engaged defensively and avoid letting one player steal the game, this feels like a matchup they should handle comfortably.

Prediction: Illinois 84, Penn 66

Let it rip. pic.twitter.com/Wiw6DrRkia
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 19, 2026

Jared Shlesky

A No. 14 seed has upset a No. 3 seed in two of the past five tournaments, which means Penn shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. I'm not convinced the Quakers have enough athleticism to take down the Illini, but I wouldn't be surprised if this game is close. Illinois is 2-3 in its past five games and has struggled to knock down the three-ball recently. Meanwhile, Penn has won five straight and has five guys shooting 39 percent or better from deep. If the Quakers get hot from beyond the arc, Illinois could be on upset alert.

Prediction: Illinois 75, Penn 69

Jack Ankony

Expect a high-scoring affair between Illinois, which has the nation’s No. 1 offense, and Penn, whose top scorers are snipers from long range. But after the first 10 minutes or so, Illinois should be able to pull away and win comfortably with its superior athletes, size and strength. Penn is a nice story with Fran McCaffery and Power leaving the high-major ranks and finding success in the Ivy League, but the Quakers won’t have enough to pull off the upset.