Why Illinois vs UConn Final Four Will Be Different Than First Matchup

A lot can change over the course of a college basketball season, even for a Final Four team.

That's certainly the case for Illinois and UConn, which squared off on Nov. 28 at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Huskies won that matchup 74-61, but both teams have made notable personnel changes that alter how the rematch figures to be played.

Start with the Illini, whose 10-man rotation from November has shrunk to seven. In the first game against UConn, guards Mihailo Petrovic and Brandon Lee logged 18 and 11 minutes, respectively. Lee didn't attempt a shot, and Petrovic went 1-for-7 from the field.

Since then, Petrovic has played double-digit minutes just once and scored 10 total points across 15 games, while Lee has played single-digit minutes in all 15 appearances. If either plays in the Final Four, it will be because the game is out of reach in either direction, Illinois is in major foul trouble or there has been an injury or two.

That gives Underwood 29 minutes to allocate elsewhere. The top candidate to absorb that – by a long shot – is Keaton Wagler, who played just 14 minutes in the first game against UConn. He finished with three points on 1-for-3 shooting, his fewest points and field-goal attempts of the season.

Wagler was an under-the-radar recruit when he arrived at Illinois, but he has since blossomed into an All-American and likely NBA lottery pick. In two contests immediately following the UConn game, he scored 16 points in a win over Tennessee and 23 to defeat Ohio State. He has played at least 30 minutes in each of Illinois' past 22 games, and is now averaging 33.8 minutes on the season. Unlike the first matchup, he will certainly be a focal point of Illinois' offense in the rematch.

Illinois also utilized a different starting lineup back in November. Andrej Stojakovic started 21 games before suffering an ankle injury that cost him two games. That allowed Jake Davis to step into the starting lineup, and Underwood has stuck with that alignment ever since.

It was a quiet game for both players against UConn, as Davis missed his lone field-goal attempt and played just nine minutes, while Stojakovic went 1-for-7 in 24 minutes. Additionally, David Mirkovic played a season-low 18 minutes against UConn, but now he regularly logs 30-plus minutes and is capable of leading Illinois in scoring.

Kylan Boswell was Illinois' go-to player in the first matchup, leading all scorers with 25 points on 8-for-16 shooting. He is still vital to the Illini as a ball-handler and defender, but he has taken a back seat to Wagler, Mirkovic and Stojakovic from a scoring standpoint.

It could be valuable to look back at the game film to study UConn's tendencies, but it may also be a contest that the Illini would prefer to just forget. They shot just 31.7 percent from the field and 6-for-29 from three-point range, their worst field-goal percentage of the season and second-worst three-point percentage.

UConn held a 43-38 rebounding advantage, something that has happened to Illinois just six times all year. And after the Huskies gained their first 10-point lead at the 12:05 mark of the first half, they kept the Illini at arm's length the rest of the way.

The victory in the first matchup should give UConn some confidence going into the Final Four, but coach Dan Hurley also has a different team in March than he had in November. Solo Ball led the Huskies with 15 points in that game, a mark he has reached just 10 times in 30 games since.

Center Tarris Reed Jr. has been a dominant force in the NCAA Tournament, but he dealt with foul trouble and finished with just two points and five rebounds in 15 minutes against Illinois. That forced freshman center Eric Reibe to play 22 minutes – but he played only seven minutes in the Elite Eight and Sweet 16. Reed will be UConn's go-to scorer after averaging 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds in four tournament games.

There has been a change to UConn's starting lineup, too. Jaylin Stewart, a 6-foot-7 forward, started 12 games early in the season, but his role has decreased to 10 minutes per game in his past 10 appearances.

On the other hand, freshman guard Braylon Mullins scored just two points in 10 minutes against Illinois, but his role grew to 29.5 minutes per game in Big East play. He's now a March Madness legend, too, after hitting a deep three-pointer to take down No. 1 overall seed Duke in the Elite Eight. Senior guard Malachi Smith also logged season-high minute totals in NCAA Tournament games against Duke and Furman despite playing single-digit minutes in eight Big East games.

So while Hurley and Underwood could use the first game to inform parts of Saturday's game plan, it may not be wise to think either team will play exactly how it did back in November. Despite the Huskies' 13-point win in the first matchup, Illinois is favored by 2.5 points in the rematch, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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