John Blackwell Transfer Prediction: Will He Choose Illinois, UCLA or Louisville?

It has been just five days since Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell cut his list to six schools (per Jonathon Givony of Draft Express), yet for Illinois, UCLA and Louisville fans, it has felt like an eternity.

Although Arizona and Alabama were both reported to be in the mix, it appears neither is making a strong push for Blackwell, while Duke – which was once considered a favorite but already has a loaded backcourt – has seemingly removed itself from the race.

Where will John Blackwell transfer to: Illinois, UCLA or Louisville?

That leaves us with three: Illinois, UCLA and Louisville – a trio of heavyweights desperately pursuing the uber-talented Blackwell, who is ranked as the No. 3 player in the portal, according to 247Sports.

First up: Louisville. Pat Kelsey, with the help of some deep pockets behind him, has assembled the nation’s premier transfer class. Former Kansas center Flory Bidunga is the crown jewel, while former Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad – a consensus top-five lead guard in this transfer class – is another stud. Meanwhile, former Arkansas small forward Karter Knox (No. 57 player in the portal) rounds out the unit.

From a talent and fit perspective, the Cardinals are an enticing landing spot for Blackwell. He would slot into the two-guard position, giving Louisville the nation’s most potent backcourt and perhaps the most star-laden overall squad in the country.

Also, there’s the aforementioned financial incentive. Although the details remain murky, it is crystal clear that Louisville is willing to pay top dollar for targets it deems worthy. Evidently, Blackwell is one of them. Naturally, that will play a role.

As for UCLA, the Bruins have one key advantage thus far: They have hosted Blackwell for a visit. The former Badger posted on his Instagram story donning the Bruins' threads on Tuesday.

Similar to Louisville, UCLA has a backcourt opening and the all-around talent (albeit less than that of the Cardinals) to support Blackwell. Also, who wouldn’t love ditching the freezing cold of Madison for sunny Los Angeles? Finally, coach Mick Cronin (despite his occasionally grating antics) is a winner.

Then there is Illinois. Even without Blackwell in the mix, the Illini appear poised to enter the 2026-27 season as a top-five team overall – something neither UCLA nor Louisville can claim.

There has been speculation that Blackwell is most concerned with competing for a national title. Illinois is the program that is best positioned to do that among these three – and, frankly, it isn't close.

And just like UCLA and Louisville, there are no questions about fit. Blackwell would come to Champaign and immediately be in control of the offensive reins (along with Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks).

Add in the consideration of the free-flowing offensive system in which the Illini play and the program's recent track record of pushing star perimeter players to the NBA (namely Keaton Wagler, Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley) and Illinois becomes the instant favorite, purely from a fit standpoint. Oh, and not for nothing: Blackwell’s father, Glynn, played four years at Illinois back in the 1980s.

At the end of the day, UCLA has a leg up after getting Blackwell on campus, Louisville and its seemingly bottomless purse likely has an NIL edge, but the Illini have the biggest sell: winning. And it’s not as though Illinois has shallow pockets.

Still, only Blackwell (and his inner circle) know the exact priorities in his recruitment and what factors hold the most weight. And because all the signs aren’t pointing in any one direction, Blackwell’s recruitment appears to remain in flux. Illinois, UCLA and Louisville all are in the mix, but there does seem to be a pecking order revealing itself.

Illinois on SI's John Blackwell transfer prediction

Illinois: 60 percent confidence level
UCLA: 20 percent
Louisville: 15 percent
Another destination: 5 percent

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