Keaton Wagler's Breakout at Illinois Highlighted by an Eye-Popping Statistic

A healthy number of high-major recruits played high school basketball at a prestigious academy (Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Prolific Prep, Brewster Academy, etc.). Those who didn’t almost always played for a shoe-circuit AAU program (Nike EYBL, Adidas 3SSB, etc.).

But not Illinois’ Keaton Wagler.

Largely unheralded as a recruit, Wagler was just the No. 261 recruit in the class of 2025, per 247 Sports’ composite rankings. He played at his local public high school – Shawnee Mission Northwest – and didn’t play travel ball for a squad that competed on a shoe circuit.

Yet here in mid-February 2026, less than a year removed from Wagler’s high school graduation, he is a legitimate Big Ten Player of the Year candidate and a potential All-American, serving as the driving force of an Illinois club with national title aspirations and that is currently ranked No. 10 in the country.

Keaton Wagler's rise at Illinois put into perspective by a jarring stat

It’s hard to put into words how impressive and unprecedented Wagler’s freshman season has been – so we’ll let the numbers do the talking:

In Wagler’s senior year of high school, he averaged 18.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists while shooting approximately 59.0 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from long range. (Remember that point-per-game figure.) Those are healthy numbers for a high school senior who also led his club to its second straight state championship – but not the typical statistical avalanche delivered by a Power 4 recruit at a public school (particularly one who breaks scoring records at Mackey Arena as a freshman).

Future Power 4 stars tend to fill it up. And at a local public school – not to mention one in the relatively hoops-sparse state of Kansas – future college players usually put up otherworldly numbers.

And it makes sense. Fewer big cities means fewer students, which means far fewer basketball players who have the kind of size, strength and overall skill to match up with a prospect capable of landing a scholarship from a major college program.

Then college arrives. The opponents are now taller, longer and have grown-man bodies honed over years in a college weight room. They’re more experienced and their games are more polished. In turn, these freshmen arrive and those numbers are often suppressed in a big way.

Wagler didn’t practice every day against fellow Division I commits. His competition wasn’t future NBA players on a game-to-game basis. It was mostly players whose basketball careers came to an end as soon as they were handed their high school diplomas.

So the general assumption was obvious: Wagler would show up and need some time – and perhaps more than most – to adjust to a very different level of competition. But then Wagler reminded us why we’re all taught from a very young age not to make assumptions.

Wagler is matching his senior-year average in points per game at Illinois

Wagler, a 6-foot-6 point guard, has come to Illinois and matched his senior-year average in points. Heading into the USC matchup, he is averaging 18.5 points per game – the same exact number he put up in high school in the state of Kansas a season ago.

His three-point percentage has hardly slipped, dropping from 45 percent at Shawnee Mission Northwest to 43.2 percent at the highest level of college basketball.

It simply defies logic. How can a player – especially one who lacks elite athleticism and carries a slim frame – climb into an exponentially higher-level bracket of competition and not miss a beat? The simplest answer is that he has everything else. Wagler has something close to an ideal combination of IQ, shooting accuracy and range, change of pace, footwork, touch, poise and at least a dash of something else that can't be quantified. Call it the "it" factor. In any case, it all comes together to create a potential All-American product and a future NBA Draft lottery pick.