KenPom Reveals Illinois’ NCAA Title Chances – Better Than You Think?

The Illini have been playing at less than their best lately, but one top metric gives odds of them winning it all that may surprise you

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) celebrates with center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

It's no secret that Illinois (24-8) hasn't exactly been slinging its fastball in recent weeks, confounding plenty of folks – including certain pundits – who earlier in the season had pegged the Illini as a Final Four club and a trendy pick to win the whole shooting match.

Five defeats in nine games later, the Illinois bandwagon has seen its payload lighten considerably. There are real issues that must be addressed by coach Brad Underwood, his staff and his players, but the Illini are the same team that knocked off Texas Tech, Tennessee, Purdue (in Mackey Arena) and others along the way. They have size, shooting and skill everywhere you look – and they have proven willing to keep things moving until a switch or defensive breakdown presents the right matchup, driving lane or open look.

It's fair to wonder, though, after down-the-stretch losses to Michigan State, UCLA, Michigan and Wisconsin (twice!) whether Illinois – a No. 3 seed that plays No. 14 Penn in an NCAA Tournament first-round matchup in Greenville, South Carolina (8:25 p.m. CT, TNT) – truly has what it takes to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.

KenPom projects Illinois' odds to win NCAA national championship

It starts in Greenville. pic.twitter.com/t2P3TQRKsT

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 15, 2026

Even the experts predicting a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight bounce from the tournament for the Illini concede that Underwood's outfit has an unusually high ceiling. On its best day, Illinois is arguably capable of toppling any of this year's contenders, and that seems to be reflected in the latest release from respected metrics model KenPom outlining odds for every team in the field to win the national championship.

Before we get to the big reveal, let's take a quick look at the win probability (by percentage) that KenPom assigned Illinois at each stage of the tournament leading up to the national championship game:

Team	Round of 32	Sweet 16	Elite Eight	Final Four	Final
Illinois	97.0	75.5	40.8	22.3	10.7

If those numbers don't mean much to you, consider that Duke – which KenPom gives the best odds of winning the title, was given probabilities of 99.1, 85.3, 69.0, 52.7 and 33.3 at each of the same stages of the tournament highlighted above. Only five other teams were assigned by KenPom a higher probability of winning the national championship than the Illini.

So what are Illinois' odds, according to the metric? KenPom gives the Illini a 4.6 percent probability of winning the 2026 NCAA Tournament. If you're underwhelmed by the number, consider this: Duke is given a 21.0 percent chance. Arizona (18.5) and Michigan (18.4) are close behind. But the odds plummet after that, with Florida – a No. 1 seed – assigned a 7.5 probability.

Honestly, that all sounds about right. Duke, Arizona and Michigan are the class of college basketball this season, and Illinois has roughly the same chance of going on a run and upsetting that order as Florida or any other fringe contender.

Let it rip. pic.twitter.com/Wiw6DrRkia

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 19, 2026

Besides, Ken Pomeroy himself advises to ignore the odds and pick Purdue, whose championship odds (4.3) are slightly lower than those of the Illini. Even the statistically driven KenPom knows the madness – and unpredictability – that March brings. Even if an Illinois national championship isn't probably, it's emintenly plausible.

That's all Illini Nation can ask for.