College Basketball Experts Reveal Illinois' 2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions

The pundits, like the rest of the country, have made their brackets. Here is how far a few of them expect the Illini to go.

Dec 9, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a call during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

It's excruciating, isn’t it? After watching college hoops all year long and doing that deep-dive research into KenPom and Bart Torvik, somehow, some way, your goofy cousin who picked his bracket based on team mascots is still going to win the family pool.

Don’t worry, it happens to the best of us – even the experts. Just ask ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who says he once lost to a cocker spaniel in his family pool. (Yes, we have as many questions as you do.) Still, it’s always interesting to see what the pundits think. Here's how far a few of them have Illinois going in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Experts make 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions for Illinois

Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) drives to the basket against Wisconsin Badgers forward Aleksas Bieliauskas (32) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Andy Katz

Andy Katz, who has remained high on the Illini for the majority of the 2025-26 season, has Brad Underwood’s unit getting past Penn in the first round before taking care of business against sixth-seeded North Carolina in the Round of 32.

Then comes the seemingly inevitable matchup the Illini undoubtedly wish they could avoid: Kelvin Sampson and Houston in Houston. Between the Cougars’ renowned defense and their hometown advantage, Katz is riding with the No. 2 seed in the South Region to wrap an unwelcome bow on Illinois’ 2025-26 campaign.

Seth Davis

Nov 13, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Big Ten Network analyst Seth Davis during a game between the Texas-Arlington Mavericks and the Southern California Trojans at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Meanwhile, Seth Davis of Hoops HQ predicts a similar fate for the Illini. He foresees Illinois ripping off two victories – the second one coming over 11th-seeded VCU – to make it to the Sweet 16 before running into a brick wall against Houston.

“The Illini have not shown the defensive toughness you need to be truly successful in March,” wrote Davis. “That’s going to be a problem if they face Houston.”

Jeff Borzello

The general consensus on Houston this year: The defense is a bit down – down being No. 5 in the nation, per KenPom – but the offense is way up. And that seemed to stand out to ESPN’s Jeff Borzello.

Borzello cited the potency of guards Kingston Flemings, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, while noting Illinois’ troubling defensive inconsistency. He, like the rest of the field thus far, is riding with the Illini to win two games before they are sent home by the Cougars in the Sweet 16.

Joe Lunardi

The Illinois faithful who stuck around this long will be rewarded with an encouraging outlook from ESPN’s resident Bracketologist, who projects the Illini to go on a run.

Lunardi also sees Illinois meeting Houston (after knocking off Penn and VCU on the first weekend), but he expects a different result than Katz, Davis and Borzello. “Houston’s offense comes up a little bit dry at the wrong time,” Lunardi said. But Lunardi predicts that the Illini, after reaching the Elite Eight, will fall to Florida, the No. 1 seed in the South Region.