Which Big Ten Teams Can Win the NCAA Championship

On the gridiron, the Big Ten has recently emerged as the dominant league in the country (winning the past three College Football Playoffs), pushing aside the SEC – which has held that title for years – and snatching the throne.

But on the hardwood, although the Big Ten remains a premier power, it has yet to get over the hump. The league hasn't won a national title in more than a quarter century (not since Michigan State won in 2000). In 2025-26, though, with five teams ranked in KenPom's top 12, it appears the dam has begun to crack – and may finally break.

So among the league’s juggernauts, which squads are actually capable of cutting down the nets in Indianapolis early next month? Let’s take a look at all five of those teams:

Which Big Ten teams can win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Mar 5, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter and Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood chat before the start of the game at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Editor’s note: KenPom rankings through March 4

Nebraska (No. 12 in KenPom)

The Cornhuskers, despite boasting relatively limited athleticism across the board, have one of the best defenses in the country. Head man Fred Hoiberg has his players better connected than a chain-link fence on that end, while Nebraska has a scoring avalanche waiting-to-happen in sharpshooter Pryce Sandfort on offense.

Yet even with other solid pieces around Sandfort, the Cornhuskers offense doesn’t rank anywhere near “elite” status. Sandfort, with some support from Rienk Mast, can get hot enough to push Nebraska to an Elite Eight, but likely no further.

The verdict (and one stat to back it up): Nebraska cannot win a national championship. The last 10 champions have each held a top-10 offense, and the Cornhuskers’ currently ranks No. 51.

Michigan State (No. 8 in KenPom)

Tom Izzo’s club comes from a much different mold than Nebraska, but it has a similar statistical resume. Michigan State is superb defensively, as tends to be the case with an Izzo-led unit. The glass is also, as usual, a strength for the Spartans.

But on offense, Michigan State relies heavily on lead guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who at least has been pulling his weight. He leads the nation in assists per game, while his scoring has seen an uptick in the second half of the season. Yet the rest of the roster remains average at best on that side of the ball, leaving far too much responsibility on Fears’ shoulders.

The verdict (and one stat to back it up): Michigan State cannot win a national championship. The last 10 champions have each held a top-10 offense, and the Spartans’ currently ranks No. 30.

Purdue (No. 7 in KenPom)

The preseason favorite to hoist the trophy in Indy, Purdue has fallen alarmingly short of expectations thus far. On Tuesday night, the Boilermakers practically needed a miracle to escape against Northwestern.

But as always, Purdue has an offense with more horsepower than a V8 engine, led by experienced guard Braden Smith – all of which signals high upside in the NCAA Tournament. Defensively, though, the Boilermakers have a nightmare combination of slow-footed athletes and a lack of size.

The verdict (and one stat to back it up): Purdue cannot win a national championship. In the KenPom era, no team has won the title with a defense that ranked outside the top 25 (Purdue’s is No. 33).

Illinois (No. 5 in KenPom)

Brad Underwood has assembled a glorious puzzle in Champaign. All the pieces are magnificent – and they couldn’t fit together any more perfectly … on one side of the floor. The Illini offense is the best in the country – and by a country mile. Unfortunately, there are two requirements in basketball: put the ball in the hoop and stop the opponent from doing the same.

Illinois isn’t great at the latter. Nevertheless, the Illini have shown flashes of brilliance defensively, pointing to upside and potential growth even in March. And most importantly, that well-oiled offensive machine allows them to stay competitive against anyone.

The verdict (and one stat to back it up): Illinois can win a national championship. Four of the past five title winners ranked in the top 12 in offensive rebounding percentage (the Illini currently rank third).

Michigan (No. 2 in KenPom)

No reason to beat around the bush: Yes, Michigan is 100 percent capable of winning a national title. In fact, the Wolverines are one of two teams (Duke being the other) most likely to find themselves still standing come April.

Dusty May’s unit is practically flawless – especially on defense. The one-on-one defenders are present in spades, as is the size and physicality, and, subsequently, the rebounding to finish off possessions. For this team to also have a top-five offense feels borderline illegal, yet here we are.

The verdict (and one stat to back it up): Michigan can win a national championship. Four of the past five teams to finish with a top-five offensive and defensive efficiency won the title that year. The Wolverines, who currently have the No. 5 offense and No. 2 defense, are going to be very tough to beat indeed in the coming weeks.