Why Illinois Basketball Will Dominate Texas Tech

The Illini's trip to Texas Tech may be a top-25 matchup, but due to the visitors' size and pace, it won't be competitive

Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood looks on before an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Playing on the road against a top-25 opponent is never truly a sure thing – even for an Illinois squad ranked No. 3 in the nation. Texas Tech, which climbed to No. 16 in Monday's latest AP poll and only just last season toppled the Illini in Champaign, is no joke.

The metrics have the Illini and Red Raiders just as close as the rankings suggest. KenPom's ratings slot Texas Tech at No. 17, while Illinois is No. 4. So with the game being played in Lubbock, it's essentially a coin flip, right? Not even close. Here’s why:

3 reasons Illinois will rout Texas Tech 

Nov 5, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) battles for position with Penn Quakers forward Augustus Gerhart (25) and forward TJ Power (12) during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illinois’ rebounding prowess

Illinois’ average rebounding margin of plus-36.5 ranks first in the country among teams that have played multiple games. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is way down the list at No. 154, with a margin of plus-5.5.

Both teams have played a pair of buy games. So while strength of schedule can skew this statistic – expect that rebounding-margin number to drop for both teams as competition ramps up – the curve is currently the same for the Illini and Red Raiders.

Texas Tech, especially without JT Toppin (more on that shortly), is really small. It has some athletes, but it isn’t bursting at the seams with otherworldly high flyers. 

As for Illinois, it is gigantic, with plus athletes and a coach who puts a massive emphasis on the glass. The visitors should feast on the boards – and make a living on second-chance points on the offensive end.

Texas Tech down JT Toppin – and suffering from a slow start by veterans

Texas Tech's JT Toppin watches basketball practice from the sidelines, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026, in United Supermarkets Arena. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Last year in Champaign, Toppin made half of the Red Raiders’ field goals. He made 17, and his team connected on 34 total. But Toppin is recovering from a torn ACL and will not be active for this matchup.

So who can Texas Tech turn to? Perhaps two-time All-Big 12 selection Darrion Williams, who is back in Lubbock after a year over at NC State. Well, Williams has scored just seven points in two games, going just 2-for-10 overall from the field.

What about long-range marksman Donovan Atwell, a fellow fifth-year returner? Atwell, who hit 3.8 threes per game on an otherworldly efficient clip of 45.8 percent last season, is just 3-for-16 from deep through two games in 2026-27. He has only 13 points on the season.

It’s a very small sample size, and it’s likely that both Williams and Atwell will bounce back in a big way – perhaps as soon as Tuesday's game against Illinois. Then again, the Illini, although known for their offense, will be by far the toughest defense Texas Tech has faced thus far. It isn’t an ideal outing for a get-right performance for the Red Raiders’ veterans. 

The Illini’s pace

Nov 2, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Quentin Coleman (11) steals the ball from Fairleigh Dickinson Knights guard JR Jacobs (0) during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For Illinois, the biggest departure from last season's campaign has been the speed at which it plays. The Illini, who were dead last in the country in fastbreak points in 2025-26, are an up-tempo team in every sense.

Texas Tech prefers to play slow, though. Its pace ranks No. 315 in the country, per KenPom (the Illini are No. 41). Put plainly: Illinois is going to run the Red Raiders out of their own arena. 

We’ve heard some version of it from a lot of the Illini players: They break opponents down by game’s end. Illinois practices this speed on a daily basis – and has done so since the summer. Texas Tech doesn’t yet have any experience – against an opponent or in its own practices – with this type of play.

And the Red Raiders don’t have a superstar guard – their 2025-26 point guard Christian Anderson would have fit the bill – to dictate the pace and slow the game down. They’ll wind up playing the Illini’s game, and it won’t be a competitive one.