ESPN's FPI Predicts Every Illinois Football Game in 2026: Agree or Disagree?

ESPN’s metrics-based Football Power Index was recently unveiled for the 2026 campaign. The model, with its usual percentage-based predictions, offered a game-by-game projection of the Illini’s upcoming campaign. Here are the numbers for each contest at present, along with our take for each projection. (For what it's worth, FPI now ranks Illinois as the No. 39 team in the country.)

Illinois vs. UAB

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 95.2 percent
Verdict: agree

To open the 2026 campaign, Illinois gets a tuneup against a lowly AAC club.

Illinois vs. Duke

Sep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz during the fourth quarter against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 66.4 percent
Verdict: agree

No Darian Mensah for Duke, no problem for Illinois.

Illinois vs. Southern Illinois

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 94.2 percent
Verdict: agree

SIU, an FCS squad, gave Purdue something of a challenge a season ago. Unfortunately for the Salukis, the Illini are not last year's Boilermakers.

Illinois at Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) catches a pass in front of Indiana Hoosiers defensive back D'Angelo Ponds (5) during the first half of the Big Ten Conference championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Dec. 6, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 4.6 percent
Verdict: agree

The Illini knocked off top-ranked Ohio State in The Shoe back in 2007 (and the Buckeyes very well may be ranked No. 1 for this game). Can they do it again in 2026? There are two reasons the answer is a hard no: Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. (But then again: 4.6 percent?)

Illinois vs. Purdue

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 75.5 percent
Verdict: agree

Speaking of the bottom-feeding Boilermakers, who are on the heels of a winless Big Ten campaign, even playing at home isn't likely to give them a snowball's chance against Illinois. But, as always, don’t be surprised if the Illini make it unnecessarily interesting.

Illinois at Michigan State

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 62.0 percent
Verdict: (mostly) agree

Can Pat Fitzgerald conjure his old Northwestern magic as the new coach at Michigan State? Maybe, but with the Spartans running so low on talent, it won’t be in Year 1. Illinois, which is being lowballed by ESPN’s FPI in this one, shouldn't have a problem in East Lansing.

Illinois vs. Oregon

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 15.0 percent
Verdict: agree

The Ducks will roll into Champaign for the first time since 1993 … and roll out with their second blowout win over the Illini in the past three seasons.

Illinois at Maryland

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 55.2 percent
Verdict: agree

Since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014, it has finished below .500 every season except one (4-4 in its debut year). But Mike Locksley’s young talent is maturing, and the Terrapins could give the Illini a run for their money in College Park.

Illinois vs. Nebraska

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 49.2 percent
Verdict: disagree

Save for the brand name, the continuous (and not so cautious) optimism in Lincoln is confusing, to say the least. (Hey, maybe Illinois’ ever-pessimistic fan base should take notes.) It has been a decade since the Cornhuskers finished over .500 in Big Ten play.

They did so-so work in the portal, but the Huskers obviously lost talented quarterback Dylan Raiola. Also, considering this game is in Champaign, the Illini should be the team to beat.

Illinois at UCLA

Dec 9, 2025; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Bob Chesney is introduced as UCLA Bruins football coach at press conference at Renee Luskin Conference Center Centennial Ballroom. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 56.7 percent
Verdict: agree

At long last, Illinois' footballers are making the trek to Los Angeles, and fortunately for Bret Bielema and his club, it’s for a matchup against the lesser of the Big Ten's two SoCal programs. That said, UCLA won’t be a walkover. And not for nothing, the Illini had no luck in their first two West Coast trips (getting torched by Oregon in 2024 and falling to Washington last season).

Illinois vs. Iowa

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 43.1 percent
Verdict: (mostly) agree

Some things never change. The Hawkeyes, yet again, should be stingy on defense but have questions to answer at quarterback. Iowa’s ground game may be a problem for an Illini unit tailored to slow down passing attacks. But the gap isn’t that large (if one exists at all), and this contest comes at home for Illinois. Should be a toss-up.

Illinois at Northwestern

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 59.1 percent
Verdict: agree

Northwestern has been surprisingly competitive since David Braun took over, and the Wildcats should be stout on defense in 2026. The past three matchups have all been decided by fewer than 10 points, and playing in Evanston could make this one even tighter for the Illini. They may have a slight edge – but nothing more.

Illinois’ final record projection according to ESPN’s Football Power Index: 6.7-5.3

Verdict: disagree

The general – and entirely fair – expectation is that Illinois will take a step back in 2026. Between the loss of key personnel and coaching turnover, it’s a reset year in Champaign – though not a rebuild. The Illini should, at bare minimum, have enough to finish the regular season with a 7-5 overall record. And an 8-4 finish wouldn’t be a shock.

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Illinois vs. UAB

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 95.2 percent Verdict: agree

Illinois vs. Duke

Illini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 66.4 percent Verdict: agree