One ESPN Metric Is Higher on Illinois Football as Duke Looms

It has become crystal clear over the past few weeks and months (and even dating all the way back to the 2024 season) that ESPN’s analytics don’t seem to view Illinois football in the same light as the rest of the country.

The Illini are No. 12 in the coaches poll this week and No. 11 in the AP poll. College football experts continue to rate Bret Bielema's squad as a legit College Football Playoff contender, yet ESPN’s FPI rankings somehow list Illinois at No. 38 in the country. That number ranks behind notable Big Ten squads including USC, Michigan, Indiana, Nebraska, Washington and Wisconsin (yes, Wisconsin), to name a few.

And that’s also why the analytics don’t appear to be as high as one might expect on Illinois’ chances in Week 2 on the road at Duke. (The Illini are given just a 49.4 percent chance of winning, per the metric.)

With all that in mind, we’re here to offer Illini fans some good (and surprising) news: Not all of ESPN’s analytics are down on Illinois. In fact, its other well-respected metric system – SP+ rankings, created by Bill Connelly – puts the Illini at No. 21.

SP+ rankings explained

Per Connelly, the SP+ rankings, broken down in a single sentence, is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency." In a key distinction from FPI (which Connelly likely senses as being important, given that he notes it in bold), the SP+ rankings are “intended to be predictive and forward-facing."

Illinois’ rating

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema leads his team during the Illini Walk before an NCAA football game against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Illini appear to have been lifted to their No. 21 ranking in SP+ by their stellar defense, which the system ranks pegged as the 20th-best unit in the country. Meanwhile, Illinois’ offense ranks No. 31 and its special teams 29th.

Following last week’s 52-3 victory over Western Illinois, the SP+ rankings pushed Illinois up five spots.

Chains kept moving. So did Laughery.
100 yards rushing. pic.twitter.com/4pcF8Ihe9n
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) August 31, 2025

Fellow Big Ten teams

In what hardly comes as a shock, Ohio State is No. 1 in the SP+ rankings, but, interestingly, Oregon rates over Penn State. (The Ducks are No. 3 and the Nittany Lions are No. 6).

USC (No. 14) and Michigan (No. 15) are the only other conference foes ahead of Illinois – although it’s worth noting that the Wolverines dropped seven spots despite a Week 1 win.

What does it mean for the Duke game?

Nov 2, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz watches from the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils land at a solid spot – No. 34 – in the SP+ rankings, with their defense (No. 28) doing much of the heavy lifting. Their offense slid in at No. 51.

Nevertheless, just one week into the 2025 campaign, all these analytics, metrics and numbers that have come to dominate the college football conversation, currently hold the least amount of value they will all season long.

Still, it offers an interesting perspective, and at least some comparative information. And on Saturday, we (and the analytics) should get a stronger idea of what the Illini may be capable of in 2025.