Was Illinois Football Lucky Again in a Win Over Duke

It’s been discussed before, and it’ll certainly be discussed again: Lately, Illinois just seems to catch all the breaks. Lucky? I mean, is there a better word for it? Sure, quarterback Luke Altmyer has a cool hand in crunch time, but winning that many close games and climbing out of five fourth-quarter holes last season has to involve a certain amount of good fortune. Right?

In Week 2, with Duke's offense moving almost at will, while Illinois battled for each and every yard, it felt like the Blue Devils were primed to upset the nation’s then-No. 12 squad.

But every time they built some momentum, the Blue Devils seemed to shoot themselves in the foot: a muffed punt, a strip sack, two players wearing the same uniform number. It felt like a practical joke being played on Duke fans, while the Illinois – once again – was just barely scraping by, benefitting from some far-off stars crossing in the cosmos.

What is often forgotten is the sheer amount of time and preparation that goes into each game. Illinois' Bret Bielema and his coaches, seemingly even more so than the average college football staff, account for every single detail. If it can be known and controlled, nothing is too trivial. And that once again paid off this past Saturday.

The muffed punt wasn't all luck

Although Bielema was the first to admit that he had no way of pinpointing precisely what went wrong on Duke receiver Que’Sean Brown's mishandled punt fair catch, he also noted that he doesn't leave anything in those situations to chance.

“Before the game, I walked down there," Bielema said. "It was Duke’s end zone, but I always just go down there, because when you’re playing these noon kickoffs, 11 a.m. – my first year as a head coach … it was an 11 a.m. kickoff every day – and I know why a lot of times teams had struggled with catching the ball in the punt game and the kicking game in those 11 o'clock games. Because, especially if they practice in the morning, there’s not a lot of sun. So I knew that direction was going to be an issue."

Duke had looked good today until they just muffed this punt and gave it back to Illinois pic.twitter.com/mkpSDkXGyP
— CFBBlueprint (@CFBBluePrint) September 6, 2025

It's worth noting that the Illini punted twice in the first frame, compared to just once in the second (the field flips each quarter). Some of that came down to circumstance, but Illinois did elect to go for it on fourth down in the second quarter – a decision potentially influenced by the fact that the sun wouldn't be in play for a Blue Devils punt returner.

Punching that rock out

Nov 16, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Matthew Bailey (7) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

As for the Illini’s other forced takeaways (Duke had five total turnovers), there's a tendency to assume it was just a bad day for Blue Devils ball carriers against modern college football defenders, who are taught to punch and strip as they tackle. Again, though, Illinois tends to do that at a higher clip than most teams in the country – and it wasn’t a coincidence that Duke specifically was a victim of it.

“Seven-play, eight-play clips of teams punching out the ball on them last year,” Bielema said. "So I really wanted to showcase that, and Matt Bailey – that one on the sideline – was a really big punch-out. I think Gabe Jacas had one over there. … When you’re hitting the quarterback, these guys are such protected players – as they should be – it’s kind of like the NFL. What we learned to teach is, we actually didn’t start tackling quarterbacks, we started punching the balls out."

Matthew Bailey peanut punch. Illinois recovers.pic.twitter.com/o5t2o5C7rh
— ✶ Ⓜ️𝕒𝕣𝕔𝕦𝕤 ▶️ ✶ (@_MarcusD3_) September 6, 2025

So although it may seem as if the Illini were blessed once more by the football gods Saturday, it can't be discounted that they were extremely well-prepared, locked in on any minutiae of the game from which they could grab an advantage.

Maybe next week the Illini won't force a single fumble. But you had better believe Bielema and his staff will search high and low for every edge Illinois has over Western Michigan and just how to use those advantages to drive the Broncos into the ground.