Luke Altmyer Is a Heisman Trophy Candidate ... If Illinois Beats Ohio State

For Illinois football fans, it has been a good bit of fun daydreaming these past few weeks about Luke Altymer as a Heisman Trophy candidate. It even made a certain amount of sense within a Central Illinois bubble, or even within the broader confines of the Big Ten. Altmyer has been the undisputed senior quarterback leader of a potent and ultra-efficient offense, the engine behind a 5-1 team very much (theoretically) in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth.

But then there's the reality: The Illini have a win over precisely one top-25 team (USC, which is no longer ranked) and still have that 63-10 atrocity at Indiana hanging from their necks. They have done little of significance as a team to elevate Altmyer into a serious conversation for an award that traditionally goes to the Division I player who combines the best offensive statistics with the most team success in a college football season.

But here's a tantalizing thought: What if – what if – Illinois beats Ohio State?

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmye — Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) takes a snap during the first half against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

How Luke Altmyer compares to top Heisman Trophy candidates

Before we get into specific scenarios, let's consider Altmyer's competition. We can go ahead and rule out defensive players, only five of which have ever been awarded the Heisman in its 89-year history – and none since Michigan's Charles Woodson in 1997. What about offensive lineman or special teamers? Please. They're even scarcer than defenders.

Pro Football Focus named its top five Heisman candidates going into Week 6, and Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith – a worthy pick – was the only non-quarterback on the list. Given the relative rarity of a Heisman-winning receiver (five, if you include Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter last season) and the fact that we're angling toward an argument in which the Illini knock off the Buckeyes next week, we'll drop Smith from the debate. Who does that leave us with?

PFF's current top five Heisman Trophy candidates (minus OSU's Jeremiah Smith)

Dante Moore, Oregon
Ty Simpson, Alabama
Carson Beck, Miami (Fla.)
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Now let's take a look at how Altmyer stacks up statistically in key categories:

Player	Team	Pass %	Pass yds	Pass YPA	Pass TDs	Pass eff. rating	Other yds	Total TDs
Dante Moore	Oregon	74.6	1,210	9.0	14	183.5	122	14
Ty Simpson	Alabama	70.3	1,478	9.4	13	174.7	51	15
Carson Beck	Miami (Fla.)	73.4	1,213	8.7	11	168.5	18	12
Fernando Mendoza	Indiana	73.0	1,208	9.9	16	197.8	102	18
Luke Altmyer	Illinois	73.6	1,573	10.6	12	189.7	-5	15

Altmyer leads the pack in passing yards and passing yards per attempt. He ranks second in passer efficiency rating and total touchdowns (tied with Simpson in the latter category). He ranks among the top 10 in the country in four of those categories, and he has scored more touchdowns without throwing an interception than any quarterback in college football. Seems relevant.

@mrwagner25 asked Hank Beatty if enough people are talking about Luke Altmyer nationally:

"No..."

More from @BeattyHank on his QB: "He's throwing some dots out there... He's balling... He's just a baller." pic.twitter.com/1tXYVZaXal
— Glenn Kinley (@glenn_kinley) October 4, 2025

Why a win over Ohio State stamps Altmyer as a Heisman candidate

In Illinois' perfect world, the Buckeyes are slain in Champaign next week and the Illini march through the rest of the season with no missteps (a very reasonable premise if they're capable of toppling OSU). That would have multiple effects, including all but knocking Smith (and Ohio State quarterback and Heisman dark horse Julian Sayin) out of the race. But it would also put Altmyer on track to end the season with a team resume on par with that of his competition.

The truth is, Alabama and Miami are living off reputation. If the Illini hadn't let the Hoosiers game get away from them, Illinois' current team results stack up with those of Bama and the Hurricanes. A win over OSU would immediately launch Altmyer over Simpson and Beck as a Heisman candidate. Suddenly, he's in the running, just behind Moore and Mendoza.

Can Altmyer win it? To paraphrase a great philosopher and sports enthusiast, this is a very complicated case. A lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what-have-yous. Illinois must beat Ohio State, Altmyer has to deliver a solid performance against the Buckeyes, and then there is half a season to go. But if, as Altmyer might say, he is able to keep stacking days and controlling the controllables, he would have a shot.

And for Illini Nation, isn't that the dream?

Luke Altmyer on playing No. 1 Ohio State next week:

"I got a job to do and I better go do it well... Just going to prepare very well and control the controllables, should be exciting." pic.twitter.com/tPafloD2WH
— Glenn Kinley (@glenn_kinley) October 4, 2025