Staff Picks: Who Wins Illinois vs. Tennessee at the Music City Bowl?

It's a new day for Illinois football. Eight wins in three of four seasons for the first time in 120 years. Back-to-back bowl games, plus a chance to win two in a row – another program first. An exceptional incoming recruiting class. Everything is on the way up for the Illini.

But that includes expectations. After last year's 10-win breakthrough, and with the stars seeming to align for an even grander 2025 season, Illinois came up short at nearly every turn. The Indiana debacle. The final vanishing of CFP hopes at Washington. The embarrassment at Wisconsin. But on Tuesday at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, against the Tennessee Volunteers in the Music City Bowl (4:30 p.m. CT, ESPN), the Illini have a chance to balance the scales a bit before the program turns its full attention to the future.

So who wins? Our Illinois on SI staff is all over the board for an admittedly tough-to-call matchup. Here's how we picked 'em:

Jason Langendorf

Illini Nation will want to believe that Illinois are closer to whole than Tennessee and that Luke Altmyer has one more magic moment left to give in an Illini uniform. They'll also point to coach Bret Bielema's track record with extra prep time and the Volunteers' change at defensive coordinator as advantages for Illinois. But without left tackle J.C. Davis, the Illini are going to struggle to protect Altmyer – and without linebacker Gabe Jacas, pressuring Vols quarterback Joey Aguilar will be as great a challenge. I envision something resembling a shootout – but with Illinois lacking enough ammo to keep up.

Prediction: Tennessee 34, Illinois 30

Different tune. Same key. All navy in the Music City. pic.twitter.com/aGJc7XQQjN
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 27, 2025

Steve Greenberg

Tennessee basically is the SEC’s Illinois in terms of pecking order and, OK, fine, the color orange. One difference between the teams could be that the Vols are a bit more bummed out about not being in the playoff mix. The street cred of beating a name-brand SEC program still carries weight for the Illini, who will be properly motivated.

Prediction: Illinois 30, Tennessee 26

Jackson Langendorf

With both Tennessee’s Aguilar and Illinois’ Altmyer opting into the Music City Bowl, neither offense should miss a beat. But that also means that the Illini’s vulnerable defense could be torn to shreds on Tuesday. On the flip side the Vols’ defense isn’t exactly a steel curtain. Expect a shootout in Nashville, but Tennessee’s more balanced offense (including a respectable rushing attack) should allow the Volunteers to snag their ninth win of the season and spoil the last salvageable silver lining of Illinois' 2025 season.

Prediction: Tennessee 38, Illinois 31

Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar (6) throws the ball during a NCAA football game between Tennessee and Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Nov. 29, 2025. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Pranav Hegde

The SEC mystique always looms large – at least according to the SEC's loudest supporters – and the Volunteers are still treated like one of college football’s premier brands. But peel back the layers, and their resume isn’t all that impressive. Tennessee didn’t beat a single team with a winning record this season, and several key contributors have already opted out for the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, the Illini arrive motivated, closer to intact and playing with purpose. This is the final game in an Illinois uniform for Altmyer, and Bielema’s squad has responded to adversity all season. With momentum, continuity and a little extra emotion on their side, Illinois should finish strong and spoil the SEC narrative – again.

Prediction: Illinois 45, Tennessee 34

Jared Shlensky

If both of these teams were at full strength, I'd take Tennessee – and by two scores. But "full strength" doesn't happen anymore in non-CFP bowl games, whether it be because of opt-outs or transfers. And the Volunteers are down a few studs, most notably wide receiver Chris Brazzell, linebacker Arion Carter and cornerback Colton Hood. That's too much for Tennessee to overcome. Expect both teams to struggle offensively, but don't be surprised if Altmyer puts together a game-winning drive when it matters most – which is what he does best.