Does a Two-Score Win Over Duke Guarantee Illinois a Spot in the Top 25 Rankings?

Despite beating UAB by 19 points last week, Illinois is still unranked – but would a big win over Duke change that?

Sep 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Katin Houser (4) scores a touchdown during the second half against the UAB Blazers at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illinois was unranked in the college football preseason polls, and despite beating UAB 42-23 in Week 1, the Illini are still unranked. However, Illinois did receive six votes in the most recent AP Top 25 poll, so it's not like the orange and blue are all that far away.

With a competitive Power 4 program in Duke coming to Champaign on Saturday, could a convincing victory – let's say two scores – over the Blue Devils propel the Illini to ranked status?

Illinois is likely to remain unranked after Week 2

Duke is a good football team and similar to Illinois – a top 35-ish team – but not exactly a powerhouse program. The Blue Devils beat a Tulane team that made the College Football Playoff last year, but neither team is exactly knocking on the door of CFP status this year.

So unless Illinois beats the snot out of Duke, Illinois is a long shot of finding the Top 25 next week. And the main reason why is because there are still a decent number of unranked teams ahead of Illinois in the polls.

Multiple unranked teams knocking on the door of the AP Top 25

Boise State, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Memphis, South Carolina, Western Michigan, Pittsburgh, Navy and UCLA all received more votes than Illinois in this week's AP Top 25 poll. So if half of those teams win this week, the Illini are likely still on the outside looking in.

Plus, Michigan and Arizona both play ranked teams this week, and Boise State and Memphis play each other. The winner of the Memphis-Boise State game is likely to find its way into the rankings, and Michigan (vs. Oklahoma) and Arizona (at BYU) are a lock if either or both beat their respective opponents. And unless BYU or Oklahoma gets blown out this week, they should remain ranked, even in a loss.

What would need to happen for Illinois to get ranked?

For Illinois to land in the updated poll Monday, a couple of top-20 teams would need to lose. The Illini would need No. 21 Iowa to fall to Iowa State and No. 23 Missouri to lose to Kansas. I could see one of those two teams losing – but not both.

And then Illinois would need Michigan, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Navy and UCLA all to lose. I don't see Michigan or Arizona winning this week, but banking on Pittsburgh, Navy and UCLA also losing is a big ask.

Final thoughts

I like Illinois over Duke, but I just don't see enough of those teams currently ahead of the Illini losing this weekend. So expect Illinois to move inside the (unofficial) top 30 in the polls next week – but not the official rankings.