Why Josh Pate Calls Illinois-USC One of the 10 Biggest Games of 2025

Well-known college football analyst Josh Pate took to his main platform – "Josh Pate’s College Football Show" – to pinpoint the top college football games of the 2025 season. And after kicking off the show with Week 1’s monster contest between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 1 Texas, Pate turned his attention towards a sneaky Week 5 Big Ten matchup: No. 12 Illinois vs. USC.

Josh Pate's take

To Pate, the Illinois-USC contest serves as a “hinge game” for both clubs, setting each team’s ceiling and making it a must-win for both the Illini and the Trojans.

“I think this is the hinge game of the year for USC," Pate said. "I think it’s the hinge game of the year for Illinois. I think it’s one of the big hinge games in college football this year."

First, he touched on the repercussions of a potential USC victory:

“Because what we could have coming out of this game, if USC wins, is a 5-0 USC team coming home with a bye getting ready for Michigan,” he said.

Then Pate flipped the script, to what it could mean for coach Bret Bielema’s guys if Illinois manages to triumph at home:

“If Illinois wins that game, it’s off-to-the-races time for Illinois. … Then you’re talking about maybe the ability to lose a game or two and maybe still be in the Big Ten title picture, the playoff picture.”

And if that latter scenario were to come to fruition, Pate would be fully out on the Trojans: “You’ll never convince me USC is going to have a great season this year if they don’t beat Illinois.”

Although Pate is certainly right about the repercussions the matchup carries for Illinois, and how desperately it needs to pull out the win, his argument doesn’t entirely hold water for USC.

The USC perspective

Sure, if the Trojans can’t beat the Illini, they likely don’t have the pieces (or the confidence, at that point) to rattle off wins on the road against Notre Dame and Oregon, let alone to hold off Michigan at home a week later.

Still, coach Lincoln Riley’s crew certainly won’t be short on opportunities. The aforementioned Notre Dame, Oregon and Michigan outings await, along with Iowa at home and Nebraska on the road – all of which serve as resume-building opportunities that could launch the Trojans into the CFP discussion (assuming they win a few of those matchups).

And on Illinois' side ...

Jul 22, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Illinois head coach Bret Bielema speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

If Illinois falls to the Trojans in Week 5 at Memorial Stadium, they will have zero breathing room – and that’s assuming they will have already knocked off Duke and Indiana on the road.

Even if the Illini take down every remaining opponent (aside from Ohio State) and finish with a 10-2 record, their best win would likely be the Hoosiers on the road – which would not be nearly enough to earn a CFP berth.

Mark it, schedule it, book it.

The 2025 Illini Football schedule is here. #Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/rbVbbohymu
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 11, 2024

At the end of the day, while the Illinois-USC game is a win the Trojans undoubtedly want, that contest is a victory the Illini need if the program wants to have any shot at its first-ever CFP bid.