ESPN Matchup Predictor Makes Pick for Indiana vs Purdue

The Hoosiers face the Boilermakers on Tuesday night in Bloomington. ESPN's analytics predict the favorite - by a slight margin

Jan 20, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian Devries reacts in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Indiana vs. Purdue. A Big Ten rivalry clash featuring two in-state opponents in the greatest hoops state in the country. It has embodied the phrase “peak cinema” for decades – until the last ten years or so. In the last 20 matchups the Boilermakers (15-5 record in the past two meetings) have dominated the Hoosiers, turning the matchup from a must-watch outing into just another “W” in the win column for Matt Painter and his troops.  

Last February, though, Indiana (sat at 6-9 in league play prior to the contest) welcomed then-No. 13 Purdue into Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall and erased a 12-point halftime deficit behind a 48-point second half to ultimately win by 15 points. 

This time around, the pair of clubs are set to meet for their first matchup of the year under eerily similar circumstances. The Boilermakers, who will surely slip out of the top ten following their two-game skid (lost to UCLA and Illinois), will be slotted at a similar spot while the Hoosiers are once again a touch below .500 in league play (currently 4-5). 

ESPN's analytics name favorite for Indiana vs. Purdue rivalry showdown

Jan 7, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter reacts to a play during the first half against the Washington Huskies at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

So, is another upset brewing in Bloomington – and, this time around, would it even be a shocker? Well, according to ESPN’s matchup predictor, Purdue is the favorite – albeit by a relatively slim margin. The metric gives the Boilermakers a 57.0 percent chance of waltzing into Hoosier territory and stealing a road win. 

Is it a fair assessment?

Facing Purdue on a two-game losing streak is an extremely scary task – one we wouldn’t wish on our worst enemy. Then again, is this Boilermakers club less motivated and inspired than it is worn down and drained? Unfortunately, at least for Indiana, that’s unlikely to be the case. Expect Painter to devise his typical gameplan – ingenious and foolproof – while star lead guard Braden Smith surely won’t miss a beat. 

Nevertheless, Indiana is dangerous. Loaded with shooters, the Hoosiers – who saw Lamar Wilkerson, Tucker DeVries and Nick Dorn combine for an otherworldly 15 triples in their last outing – are capable of getting scorching hot from deep. 

⏮️ A full rewind of our Friday night. pic.twitter.com/nJdTlg7q8n

— Indiana Basketball (@IndianaMBB) January 25, 2026

And although Indiana may not have a plethora of elite one-on-one defenders, Darian DeVries’ club is disciplined on that end, and thoroughly impressive on first-shot defense. The issue lies in Indiana’s prowess – or lack thereof – on the glass. 

If the Hoosiers rebound the ball and knock down shots, they can win this contest. Still, even in Bloomington, it’s hard not to give the edge to Purdue, which is better rounded on both ends of the floor and will certainly boast the best player on the court in Smith.