Indiana's NCAA Tournament Hopes Still Alive As Bubble Teams Falter

Indiana entered Saturday's game at Ohio State as the last team in Joe Lunardi's NCAA Tournament Bracketology, and just 33 of 73 projections on BracketMatrix.com included the Hoosiers.

The prevailing opinion was that a loss to Ohio State would knock Indiana out of the field, and it still might. Saturday's 91-78 loss to the Buckeyes gave the selection committee no reason to believe in the Hoosiers (18-13, 9-11).

But after a disastrous day for fellow bubble teams, no one else made a compelling enough case to dismiss Indiana entirely.

Indiana's NCAA Tournament chances are somehow still alive

Lamar Wilkerson Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena. | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Perhaps Indiana's best argument following Saturday's loss to Ohio State is, "well, look at what the other bubble teams did."

Nine of Lunardi's bubble teams were in action on Saturday, and all nine lost.

Missouri: L, 88-84 vs. No. 20 Arkansas
Texas: L, 88-85 vs. Oklahoma
SMU: L, 91-78 at Florida State
Indiana: L, 91-78 at Ohio State
New Mexico: L, 94-90 at Utah State
Auburn: L, 96-84 at No. 16 Alabama
Virginia Tech: L, 76-72 at No. 13 Virginia
Cincinnati: L, 73-63 at TCU
California: L, 80-73 at Wake Forest

So instead of losing all hope of reaching the NCAA Tournament in coach Darian DeVries' first season, Indiana essentially just dropped one spot, according to Lunardi. As of Sunday morning, he considers the Hoosiers the first team out.

pic.twitter.com/uu4yC8sO5x
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 8, 2026

Adding more perspectives, Indiana's standing on BracketMatrix.com hardly changed. Of the 53 projections updated on Sunday morning, 26 include the Hoosiers with an average seed of 11.00. That would put them in the consensus field as a First Four team.

Here's a look at how the Hoosiers' relevant NCAA Tournament metrics changed –– and stayed the same –– from Friday to Sunday morning.

NET: 37 (no change)
KenPom: 41 (no change)
Torvik: 29 (down one)
Wins Above Bubble (WAB): +0.11, 46th (up one)
Basketball Power Index (BPI): 36 (down two)
KPI: 65 (down two)
Strength of record: 46 (no change)

Indiana also benefitted from Wisconsin's upset win at No. 15 Purdue on Saturday. That moved the Badgers up to No. 26 in the NET rankings, making Indiana's win over them a Quad 1 victory. So in that sense, the Hoosiers' resume arguably improved over the weekend despite their poor performance at Ohio State, a Quad 1 loss.

Quad 1 record: 3-11
Quad 2 record: 3-2
Quad 3 record: 5-0
Quad 4 record: 7-0

Indiana now moves on to the Big Ten Tournament, where it is locked in as the No. 10 seed. The Hoosiers will play Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. CT at the United Center in Chicago against the winner of Tuesday's game between No. 15 Northwestern and No. 18 Penn State.

With a win, Indiana would advance to play No. 7 seed Purdue on Thursday at 5:30 p.m. CT. Its Friday opponent is still subject to change because eight Big Ten teams are in action on Sunday.

But if the favorites all win –– meaning Michigan defeats Michigan State, Illinois defeats Maryland and Nebraska beats Iowa –– the Hoosiers' path would feature No. 2 Nebraska on Friday.

With the rest of the bubble faltering, it seems possible for Indiana to make the NCAA Tournament with two wins in the Big Ten Tournament. It'd still be a nervous Selection Sunday, but that's perhaps the bare minimum for the Hoosiers to feel like they have a chance.

That could change if there are a large amount of bid stealers from mid-major conferences, so Indiana would feel much more comfortable with three wins in the Big Ten Tournament.

That means the Hoosiers's NCAA Tournament hopes are somehow still alive, though Saturday's loss at Ohio State doesn't inspire much confidence that they can make enough of a run in the Big Ten Tournament.