Indiana Basketball NCAA Tournament Bracketology Before Regular Season Finale

Indiana cruised to a stress-free 77-47 home win over Minnesota on Wednesday, a good way for its six seniors to wrap up their time at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

But with one regular season game remaining Saturday at Ohio State, followed by the Big Ten Tournament, Indiana certainly can't relax just yet. The Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament hopes are still very much up in their with Selection Sunday quickly approaching on March 15.

Here's a look at where Indiana stands in the latest projections, along with the metrics, betting odds and what the Hoosiers need to do to secure a bid.

Indiana is squarely on the bubble in latest NCAA Tournament bracketology projections

Lamar Wilkerson Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) celebrates after defeating the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana is projected as a No. 11 seed in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology on ESPN, updated Friday morning. Lunardi lists Indiana has one of the last four teams in, alongside Santa Clara, SMU and New Mexico. That means the Hoosiers would play in the First Four round in Dayton against No. 11 seed SMU.

It'd also set up a highly anticipated Round of 64 game against a rival in No. 6 seed Kentucky. The Wildcats defeated the Hoosiers 72-60 on Dec. 13, 2025, which was their first matchup since Indiana's win over Kentucky during the 2016 NCAA Tournament Round of 32.

However, CBS Sports disagrees that Indiana would be in the NCAA Tournament as things currently stands. It lists the Hoosiers as one of the first four teams out in Friday's projection, along with Auburn, Seton Hall and New Mexico. In this projection, Indiana would have to pass Texas A&M, Santa Clara, VCU or Cal to make the field.

BracketMatrix is a site that has compiled NCAA Tournament projections from 89 sources as of Thursday and builds a consensus bracket. Because the Hoosiers are only in the tournament in 34 of the 89 projections, they're currently out of the bracket with an average seed of 11.03.

Betting odds

Indiana has some work to do to secure a bid from the perspective of oddsmakers.

The Hoosiers have +140 odds to make the NCAA Tournament, according to the DraftKings Sportsbook on Friday morning, and they're -180 to miss the tournament.

Indiana's relevant NCAA Tournament metrics

Tucker DeVries Indiana Basketball — Indiana's Tucker DeVries (12) celebrates after defeating Wisconsin at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Following Wednesday's 77-47 win over Minnesota, Indiana made the biggest jump on BartTorvik.com, moving up seven spots to No. 28. The Hoosiers' climb was less significant in other metrics, jumping three spots to No. 37 in the NET rankings and two spots to No. 41 on KenPom.

A variety of metrics are taken into account when the selection committee builds the field of 68, and here's where Indiana stands in a few of them as of Friday morning.

NET: 37
KenPom: 41
Torvik: 28
Wins Above Bubble (WAB): +0.26 (47th)
Basketball Power Index (BPI): 34
KPI: 63
Strength of record: 46
Quad 1 record: 2-10
Quad 2 record: 3-2
Quad 3 record: 6-0
Quad 4 record: 7-0

What Indiana needs to do to make the NCAA Tournament

Saturday's 5:30 p.m. ET game at Ohio State is about as meaningful as it gets for a pair of bubble teams. The Buckeyes are slightly ahead of the Hoosiers in most NCAA Tournament projections, as all 89 on BracketMatrix.com include Ohio State.

A loss would not necessarily knock Ohio State out of the big dance, but it'd make things very nervous for the Buckeyes. Likewise, a win wouldn't make Indiana a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but perhaps it'd raise their chances above 50%.

It'd be Indiana's third Quad 1 win of the season, while Ohio State would take a Quad 2 loss. The Hoosiers and Buckeyes currently have identical 2-10 records in Quad 1, but Ohio State's 6-1 Quad 2 record is notably better than Indiana's 3-2 record in Quad 2 games.

Indiana is guaranteed to play Wednesday as the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament regardless of what happens in the final regular season games. The opponent is still to be determined, but as of now, it'd either be Northwestern or Penn State.

A win over Ohio State and Northwestern/Penn State could be enough for an NCAA Tournament bid, but it'd be a nervous stretch leading up to Selection Sunday. Indiana's most likely second opponent in the Big Ten Tournament is UCLA or Ohio State, and a win in that game on Thursday would likely have the Hoosiers feeling great about their NCAA Tournament chances.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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