Where Indiana Basketball Stands Among NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams

Indiana's season is slipping away at the worst time, having lost four straight games from Feb. 15 to March 1. The latest defeat came Sunday afternoon at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, where No. 13 Michigan State took down first-year coach Darian DeVries' Hoosiers 77-64.

Time is running out for the Hoosiers (17-12, 8-10) to make their case for an NCAA Tournament bid, with regular season games against Minnesota and Ohio State remaining, followed by the Big Ten Tournament. Here's a closer look at this weekend's results and Indiana's metrics with Selection Sunday quickly approaching on March 15.

Indiana is in serious trouble, but its bubble hasn't burst just yet

Indiana missed a prime opportunity on its home court to pick up a resume-boosting Quad 1 win, which would have made an NCAA Tournament bid realistic barring an upset loss and chaos.

At the same time, it's not a loss that knocks out Indiana entirely or kills its metrics, given that Michigan State is No. 11 in the NET rankings. Indiana fell just three spots in the NET after Sunday's loss, and still has only one loss outside of Quad 1 –– Tuesday's home loss to Northwestern.

As of Monday morning, Indiana had +150 odds to make the NCAA Tournament and -195 odds to miss it, according to the DraftKings Sportsbook. Here's a closer look at the Hoosiers' resume.

NET: 41
KenPom: 43
Torvik: 35
Wins Above Bubble (WAB): -0.18 (52nd)
Basketball Power Index (BPI): 38
KPI: 67
Strength of record: 48
Quad 1 record: 2-11
Quad 2 record: 2-1
Quad 3 record: 6-0
Quad 4 record: 7-0

As of Friday, the Hoosiers were the last team in the field, according to Joe Lunardi, who hasn't updated his projections since Indiana's latest loss. But CBS Sports moved Indiana off the bubble, somewhere below their first four out, as of Monday morning.

Bracket Matrix, which was most recently updated on March 1, has Indiana in 57 of the 94 bracket projections, effectively making the Hoosiers a No. 11 seed in the First Four.

If there's a silver lining to this weekend's results, it helps that other bubble teams also faltered over the weekend. With a few results going the other way, Indiana could easily be in a worse spot, for what that's worth.

Cal: L, 72-56 vs. Pittsburgh
UCLA: L, 78-73 at Minnesota
USC: L, 82-67 vs. No. 12 Nebraska
San Diego State: L, 81-76 at New Mexico
Texas A&M: L, 76-70 vs. Texas
Auburn: L, 85-79 vs. Ole Miss
SMU: L, 95-75 at Stanford
Seton Hall: L, 71-67 at No. 6 UConn
Virginia Tech: L, 89-82 at No. 18 North Carolina

On the other hand, several bubble teams picked up important victories over the weekend. However, Texas, Ohio State and West Virginia were the only ones to up Quad 1 wins, so there weren't many wins that will greatly boost a bubble team's resume.

Texas was already ahead of Indiana, so not much changes there. But Ohio State and West Virginia were considered behind the Hoosiers going into the weekend, so that debate is certainly closer now. Here's a look at bubble teams who won over the weekend.

Georgia: W, 87-68 vs. South Carolina
Missouri: W, 88-65 at Mississippi State
Texas: W, 76-70 at Texas A&M
TCU: W, 77-68 at Kansas State
Santa Clara: W, 93-72 vs. Oregon State
New Mexico: W, 81-76 vs. San Diego State
Ohio State: W, 82-74 vs. No. 8 Purdue
VCU: W, 82-63 vs. Fordham
Cincinnati: W, 91-68 vs. Oklahoma State
Stanford: W, 95-75 vs. SMU
West Virginia: W, 79-71 vs. No. 19 BYU

Moving forward, Wednesday's home game against Minnesota is must-win for Indiana, which has been the case for the last few weeks. Minnesota is No. 68 in the NET rankings, so it'd be a Quad 2 win for the Hoosiers.

Winning that game wouldn't be a huge boost, but it's not worthless from a NET standpoint. And of course, the Hoosiers have eliminated their margin for error at this point and can't afford another home loss.

The real opportunity to make a convincing case to the selection committee comes on March 7 at Ohio State, a Quad 1 opportunity.

The Buckeyes took down No. 8 Purdue over the weekend, improving to 10-8 in Big Ten play and a No. 10 seed in CBS Sports' latest bracket. Head-to-head bubble games on the final day of the regular season don't get much bigger than that.

After that, the Hoosiers would likely need at least two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to have any hope of an NCAA Tournament bid, and at least three if it wants to feel safe.

As things stand, Indiana would be the No. 10 seed and play Wednesday against the winner of No. 15 Northwestern vs. No. 18 Penn State, followed by a Thursday game against No. 7 Ohio State, with No. 2 Nebraska waiting in Friday's quarterfinals.

So as discouraging as Sunday's loss was –– on top of the last few weeks –- Indiana's NCAA Tournament hopes aren't dead just yet. It's an uphill climb that will require at least one upset victory, though, leaving the Hoosiers hanging on by a thread.

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