Jack’s Take: Hard To Predict Which Version Of Indiana Shows Up At Wisconsin

Indiana is playing some of its best basketball of late.

That might sound crazy, but bear with me.

The Hoosiers just took No. 7 Purdue – its toughest opponent all season – down to the wire at Mackey Arena, where the Boilermakers are 68-5 over the last five seasons. The game before that, Indiana was one play away from defeating Maryland, a top-20 team in the NET rankings, AP Top 25 Poll and KenPom.

Of course, the Hoosiers fell apart in the final seconds of both losses. Criticizing coaching decisions, player execution and even officiating is all fair game. And a pessimistic outlook on the rest of the season is understandable.

Indiana has no time for no moral victories, and this isn’t a call for one. In some ways, it’s the opposite. Think of it this way. Had Indiana made just one or two more plays against Maryland and Purdue, it would be 16-6 overall and in fourth place in the Big Ten standings at 7-4. I’m curious what the sentiment around the program would be, given the chants at Assembly Hall to fire Mike Woodson and the constant negativity on social media.

Instead, after losing five of its last six games, Indiana fell to 14-8 overall, 5-6 in the Big Ten, No. 65 in the NET and out of the eight-team bubble in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. Woodson was listed as one of “the big dominos” in a recent college basketball coaching hot seat list.

That shows just how much one or two games can mean for a season, and how narrow the margin between wins and losses can be. It also adds to the frustration for all involved.

Indiana Basketball — Indiana coach Mike Woodson with Luke Goode (10) and Mackenzie Mgbako (21) against Illinois at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The Hoosiers putting together two of their best performances of the season against two of its top opponents illustrated what many thought this team could be. That’s a low bar, because they don’t have a win over a surefire NCAA Tournament team. But wasting perhaps their two best chances to turn the season around with failures in end-of-game situations is demoralizing.

"It's very frustrating, because we're right there,” Trey Galloway said after Indiana’s 81-76 loss Friday at Purdue. “And we got to keep fighting. There's a lot of games left. But to know that we're right there and that close to being able to find ways to win those close games like this is definitely frustrating for all of us because we want to win in the worst way possible. But the good thing is we have another great opportunity against Wisconsin. So we just got to look forward to that and learn from this. But it's always challenging to lose games like this."

Indiana’s recent 1-5 stretch raises another question. What’s more damaging – losing by 25 points to Iowa and Illinois? Blowing a six-point halftime lead at Northwestern? Or failing to execute in the final minute against Maryland and Purdue?

From a metrics standpoint and how it impacts Indiana’s tournament hopes, it’s the blowout losses, which have become all too common in the Woodson era. They’ve reflected the worst parts of this season, and they cast doubt on the current approach and what can be achieved moving forward.

Anthony Leal shared his thoughts on the main issues after Indiana’s 94-69 home loss to Illinois.

“To be honest, there’s a lot of defensive schemes we can run, and it really doesn't matter what we do if we're not going to do it hard, with effort and toughness. That's what it comes down to,” Leal said. “Obviously they have some really talented players on their team. They're a good team. But we know we're talented and a good team as well. We just aren't matching anybody's toughness or togetherness or effort right now. I think that's the problem.”

Since that loss, Indiana has made a noticeable improvement in those areas. In Friday’s loss at Purdue, no one could question the Hoosiers’ toughness, effort or togetherness. Indiana traded punches with Purdue for 39-plus minutes and led by as many as seven points.

The Hoosiers looked more connected defensively than in most games this season, despite the deafening Mackey Arena crowd. Purdue couldn’t stop the pick-and-roll game between Galloway, who finished with 15 points and five assists, and Oumar Ballo, who had 14 points and eight rebounds. Leal made winning plays on both ends. Luke Goode and Mackenzie Mgbako sank 6-of-14 3-point attempts.

Trey Galloway Indiana Basketball — Indiana's Trey Galloway (32) celebrates a 3-pointer against Purdue at Mackey Arena. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

It looked like the team many thought Indiana was capable of being this season. And it did so while getting zero points from Myles Rice and three points from Malik Reneau – who has struggled since coming back from a knee injury he suffered in early January – two players who combine to average 24 points per game.

But late game blunders, 20 turnovers and 9-for-16 free throw shooting held them back from a win that could have helped turn the season around. So from a team morale standpoint, the more excruciating losses might be the close ones.

Ballo was visibly upset during the Purdue loss, yelling at teammates and coaches after Rice’s missed jumper with four seconds left and heading to the locker room while the Hoosiers went through the handshake line.

"Well again, everybody's heated in the heat of the moment, and [Ballo] didn't think it was a good play and he voiced his opinion on it, which is OK,” Woodson said. “You just hope that you can learn from it and build on it and move on."

The problem Indiana faces is that, although it showed encouraging improvements in recent losses, it might be too late to learn from the losses and build on them. The Hoosiers needed a resume-boosting win at Purdue far more than they needed a performance that simply showed them they’re capable of hanging with one of the nation’s best teams.

Sure, there are nine Big Ten games left, and a hot streak could be enough to save the season and earn a postseason bid. But the recent mix of up-and-down play makes it hard to know which version of the Hoosiers will show up on a game-by-game basis.

If it’s the one that was uncompetitive a few weeks ago against Iowa and Illinois, the season will quickly become unsalvageable. If it’s the rendition that played perhaps its best game of the season at Purdue, there’s a lot still left on the table.

But where was that effort all season? I don’t have the answer, and I’m not sure the players or coaches have it, either. After all, Woodson said after the Northwestern loss, “I wish I knew,” when asked what’s holding his team back from putting together a full 40-minute game.

Indiana has five straight Quad 1 opportunities, starting at 9 p.m. ET Tuesday at No. 21 Wisconsin. Indiana hasn’t won at Madison since 1998, and the Badgers are 9.5-point favorites.

History and projections say the Hoosiers don’t stand much of a chance, but their performance Friday at Purdue says otherwise. Indiana has spent much of this season not realizing the potential of its talented roster, though it’s had glimpses where it does. Why it hasn’t reached that potential more often adds to the frustration and puzzling nature of what’s turning into a disappointing season.

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