Jack’s Take: John Calipari Leaves Kentucky For Arkansas; How Could it Impact Indiana?

Indiana still has six scholarships to fill, and news that John Calipari is leaving Kentucky to coach Arkansas could make more talent available for Indiana coach Mike Woodson as he builds the 2024-25 roster.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Even on the eve of the national championship, college basketball news with nationwide implications waited for no one. 

It’s been like that over the final month of the season, with transfer portal movement and the coaching carousel in full swing throughout the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Top jobs like Louisville, Michigan, Ohio State and USC have opened and been filled, and no program has been immune to losing players to the transfer portal. But Sunday night’s news was perhaps the biggest yet. 

After 15 seasons at Kentucky, coach John Calipari is leaving Lexington for Arkansas, according to multiple reports. He’ll replace Eric Musselman, who took the USC job less than a week before. Not only does it open arguably the sport’s best job, it’ll affect high school and transfer portal recruiting for more schools than just Kentucky and Arkansas.

Kentucky had the No. 2 recruiting class in the nation in the class of 2024, behind only Duke, per 247 Sports. The six-man class included four five-star recruits – Jayden Quaintance (No. 8), Boogie Fland (No. 18), Karter Knox (No. 19), Billy Richmond (No. 24) – and two four-star prospects: Somto Cyril (No. 41) and Travis Perry (No. 81). Knox, a small forward from Overtime Elite in Atlanta, has already decommitted from Kentucky. 

Though Kentucky and Indiana’s rivalry has died down in recent years, the coaching change in Lexington could have a trickle down effect in Bloomington from a recruiting and scheduling standpoint.

Wildcats from the 2023-24 roster like Aaron Bradshaw and Adou Thiero have entered the transfer portal. Indiana has been in contact with Thiero and recruited him in high school. Bradshaw, a 7-footer ranked No. 4 in the class of 2023, was teammates with Indiana’s Mackenzie Mgbako at Roselle Catholic High School in New Jersey.

Three of Kentucky’s class of 2024 commits – Fland, Cyril and Perry – visited Indiana before ultimately committing to Kentucky. Fland, one of the nation’s top guards from White Plains, N.Y., was closest to becoming a Hoosier, including Indiana in his final three with Kentucky and Alabama. Cyril visited in the fall of 2022, but not again during his senior year at Overtime Elite. Perry, the all-time leading scorer in Kentucky high school history, left Indiana out of his top five of Alabama, Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Kentucky and Western Kentucky.

Following Calipari to Arkansas or staying committed to Kentucky seem to be the most likely outcomes for those on the 2023-24 roster and incoming recruits. Eight players from Arkansas’ 2023-24 roster have already entered the transfer portal, so Calipari shouldn’t have an issue handpicking his first Razorbacks roster.

But if those players explore other options, Indiana must be ready to act. Coach Mike Woodson still has six scholarships to fill heading into the 2024-25 season, and Calipari’s move to Arkansas potentially puts a ton of talent on the market. Indiana has been recruiting dozens of transfer portal prospects in the last few weeks, and several have scheduled visits.

Woodson has succeeded in short-term, late-cycle recruiting situations like this in the past. In three consecutive classes, he landed highly touted recruits like Mackenzie Mgbako, Malik Reneau and Tamar Bates after they decommitted from other schools.

Indiana lost point guard Xavier Johnson to graduation, and an electrifying combo guard like Fland would certainly fill a need. Fland was named MaxPreps New York High School Player of the Year, averaging 19.2 points per game for Archbishop Stepinac High School. Perry played AAU basketball for Indiana Elite, like several current Hoosiers, and he would bring 3-point shooting to an Indiana roster that lacked it in Woodson’s third year.

Woodson is also in the process of replacing Kel’el Ware, an All-Big Ten second-team center who’s off to the NBA, as well as backup bigs Anthony Walker and Payton Sparks. Cyril, at 6-foot-10, would help do just that. 

The coaching changes impact Indiana beyond just recruiting. Back in October, Indiana and Kentucky agreed to renew what was once one of the most highly anticipated college basketball rivalries.

It’d bring together two programs with 13 combined national championships for a four-game series beginning in 2025-26. There was one caveat, though. Kentucky got two true home games at Rupp Arena, while Indiana got just one game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind., and the other would be played at a neutral site, Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

"That was the only way I could get it done," Indiana coach Mike Woodson said at Big Ten Media Days in October 2023. "We'll move forward probably after that last year of it being in Bloomington, to maybe have it Rupp-Bloomington-Rupp-Bloomington and just leave it that way."

Calipari’s aversion to Assembly Hall stems from the 2011 matchup, when Christian Watford’s buzzer beater defeated the No. 1 Wildcats. It led to true Hoosier Hysteria in Bloomington, a celebration that turned Calipari away for a decade-plus.

“We don't have obnoxious – well, we may, but I never hear them – but we don't treat the other team with disrespect,” Calipari said in 2014. “If we won a game against the No. 1 team in the country in Rupp Arena, would people charge the court? No. You're supposed to [win]. You're Kentucky. We don't do that here."

“Other people get involved [and say] you’ve got to come to our place," Calipari said in 2016. "No, we’re not coming to Indiana."

Calipari’s tenure at Kentucky concludes with a 3-2 record against Indiana. The Wildcats won the first two matchups and defeated Indiana in the Sweet 16 en route to Calipari’s lone national championship with Kentucky in 2012. Indiana’s win in 2011 came with the iconic “Wat Shot,” and the last matchup saw the No. 5 seed Hoosiers defeat the No. 4 seed Wildcats 73-67 in the NCAA Tournament Round of 32 under former head coach Tom Crean.

But Calipari heading to Arkansas could open the door for the series being restructured under a new coach. 

Though the administration was going to bring Calipari back to Kentucky for another year, this move feels like a win-win for both sides. Kentucky fans had grown tired of Calipari consistently underachieving despite top-ranked recruiting classes, seen through NCAA Tournament losses to No. 15 seed St. Peter’s in 2022 and No. 14 seed Oakland in the 2024 tournament. 

Kentucky hasn’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2019, and its last Final Four run came in 2015. For a program with eight national championships, its last coming in 2012, Calipari simply hadn’t won enough to continue to curry favor. The Kentucky job should attract some of the top names in college basketball coaching, as Nate Oats, Scott Drew, Billy Donovan and Dan Hurley have been tabbed candidates. And in an era where the roster can be flipped in one offseason, Kentucky will be just fine in the big picture. 

Arkansas took a step back in 2023-24 under Musselman, going 16-17 and missing the NCAA Tournament after an Elite Eight run and two Sweet 16 trips in three consecutive seasons. Losing Musselman had setback potential in the long term, but the combination of Calipari’s recruiting prowess and NIL backing give Arkansas tools to compete at a high level right away.

Other programs, like Indiana, have reason to hope this shakeup makes even more talent available as roster movement becomes more prevalent than ever.

Related stories on Indiana basketball

• INDIANA BASKETBALL TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER: The college basketball transfer portal is in full swing. Here you can find all the Indiana basketball transfer portal news, including incoming and outgoing transfers, players with interest from Indiana, NBA draft entrants and a scholarship chart for next season. CLICK HERE