Opening Line: Indiana Modest Favorite in Big Ten Semifinal vs. Penn State

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CHICAGO — Indiana gets Penn State in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Saturday, with. revenge on their minds. That's a good mantra to have this week.
The two teams met in early January, and Penn State clobbered the Hoosiers in State College, making a shocking 18 three-pointers in a 19-point win. The Nittany Lions, who were 2.5-point favorites that night, covered easily, winning 85-66. It was the third straight loss for Indiana, who was 1-4 in the Big Ten at the time.
Since then, though, Indiana went 11-4 in league play and grabbed the third seed and a double-bye in the Big Ten tourney. And they are favored to reach the final, despite that recent history with Penn State, who is the No. 10 seed in. this tournament and had already upset No. 7 seed Illinois and No. 2 Northwestern.
Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite according to the odds on the Fanduel gambling website. The over/under is 138.5. The game starts at approximately 3:30 p.m. ET, 25 minutes after the first semifinal game between No. 1 Purdue and No. 13 Ohio State.
Here is a thorough breakdown on what Indiana has done all season, both straight up and against the spread:
Indiana by the numbers
- Indiana overall record: 22-10
- Indiana overall vs. spread: 16-16
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- Indiana home record: 15-2
- Indiana home vs. spread: 10-7
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- Indiana road record: 5-7
- Indiana road vs spread: 4-8
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- Indiana neutral court record: 2-1
- Indiana neutral court vs. spread: 2-1
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- Indiana record as favorite: 19-4
- Indiana vs. spread as favorite: 13-10
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- Indiana record as underdog: 3-6
- Indiana vs. spread as underdog: 3-6
Indiana vs. the spread
Here's what Indiana has done this season, straight up and against the spread:
- Nov. 7 — Beat Morehead State 88-53 as a 24.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 10 — Beat Bethune-Cookman 101-49 as a 32.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 18 — Won at Xavier 81-79 as a 1.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 20 — Beat Miami of Ohio 86-56 as a 27.5-point favorite in Indianapolis (won)
- Nov. 23 — Beat Little Rock 86-67 as a 29..5-point favorite (lost)
- Nov. 25 — Beat Jackson State 90-51 as a 28.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 30 — Beat No. 18 North Carolina 77-65 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
- Dec. 3 — Lost at Rutgers 63-48 as a 3-point favorite (lost)
- Dec. 7 — Beat Nebraska 81-55 as a 12.5-point favorite (won)
- Dec. 10 — Lost to No. 10 Arizona 89-75 in Las Vegas as a 1.5-point underdog (lost)
- Dec. 17 — Lost at No. 8 Kansas 84-62 as a 5.5-point underdog (lost)
- Dec. 20 — Beat Elon 96-72 as a 28.5-point favorite (lost)
- Dec. 23 — Beat Kennesaw State 69-55 as a 17.5-point favorite (lost)
- Jan. 5 — Lost at Iowa 91-89 as a 1.5-point underdog (lost)
- Jan. 8 — Lost to Northwestern 84-83 as a 7.5-point favorite (lost)
- Jan. 11 — Lost at Penn State 85-66 as a 2.5-point underdog (lost)
- Jan. 14 — Beat No. 18 Wisconsin 63-45 as a 4-point favorite (won)
- Jan. 19 — Won at Illinois 80-65 as a 6.5-point underdog (won)
- Jan. 22 — Beat Michigan State 82-63 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
- Jan. 25 — Won at Minnesota 61-57 as an 11.5-point favorite (lost)
- Jan. 28 — Beat Ohio State 86-70 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
- Jan. 31 — Lost at Maryland 66-55 as a 2.5-point underdog (lost)
- Feb. 4 — Beat No. 1 Purdue 79-74 as a 1-point favorite (won)
- Feb. 7 — Beat No. 24 Rutgers 66-60 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
- Feb. 11 — Won at Michigan 62-61 as a 2.5-point underdog (won)
- Feb. 15 — Lost at Northwestern 64-62 as a 1.5-point favorite (lost)
- Feb. 18 — Beat Illinois 71-68 as a 6.5-point favorite (lost)
- Feb. 21 — Lost at Michigan State 80-65 as a 3.5-point underdog (lost)
- Feb. 25 — Won at No. 5 Purdue 79-71 as a 6.5-point underdog (won)
- Feb. 28 — Lost to Iowa 90-68 as a 6.5-point favorite (Iost)
- March 5 — Beat Michigan 75-73 in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite (lost)
- March 10 — Beat Maryland 70-60 in Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals in Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite (won)
Penn State vs. the spread
Penn State — who is 21-12 on the season, and finished 10-10 in the Big Ten regular —has pulled off two straight upsets in the Big Ten Tournament, knocking off higher seeds Illinois and Northwestern on the way to the semifinal showdown with Indiana.
They are 19-14 against the spread this season. Here's what Penn State has done this season, straight up and against the number:
- Nov. 7 — Beat Winthrop 93-68 as a 13.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 10—Beat Loyola-Maryland 90-65 as an 18.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 14— Beat Butler 68-62 as a 5.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 17 — Beat Furman 73-68 in Charleston, S.C. as a 3.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 18 — Lost to Virginia Tech 61-59 in Charleston, S.C. as a 3.5-point underdog (won)
- Nov. 20 — Beat Colorado State 68-56 in Charleston, S.C. as a 5.5-point favorite (won)
- Nov. 25 — Beat Lafayette 75-56 as a 21.5-point favorite (lost)
- Nov. 29 — Lost at Clemson 101-94 in 2-OT in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge as 2.5-point underdog (lost)
- Dec. 7 — Lost to Michigan State 67-58 as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
- Dec. 10 — Won at No. 17 Illinois 74-59 as a 10.5-point underdog (won)
- Dec. 18 – Beat Canisius 97-67 as an 18.5-point favorite (won)
- Dec. 22 — Beat Quinnipiac 77-68 as an 14.5-point favorite (lost)
- Dec. 29 — Beat Delaware State 60-46 as a 28,.5-point favorite (lost)
- Jan. 1 – Beat Iowa 83-79 as a 2.5-point favorite (won)
- Jan. 4 — Lost at Michigan 79-69 as an 4.5-point underdog (lost)
- Jan. 8 — Lost to No. 1 Purdue 76-63 in Philadelphia as a 5,.5-point underdog (lost)
- Jan. 11 — Beat Indiana 85-66 as a 2.5-point favorite (won)
- Jan. 17 — Lost at Wisconsin 63-60 as an 3.5-point underdog (won)
- Jan. 21 — Beat Nebraska 76-65 as an 8.5-point favorite (won)
- Jan. 24 — Lost at Rutgers 65-45 as a 6.5-point underdog (lost)
- Jan. 29 — Beat Michigan 83-61 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
- Feb. 1 — Lost at No. 1 Purdue 80-60 as a 9.5-point underdog (lost)
- Feb. 5 — Lost at Nebraska 72-63 as a 4.5-point favorite (lost)
- Feb. 8 — Lost to Wisconsin 79-74 in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
- Feb. 11 — Lost at Maryland 74-68 as a 7.5-point underdog (lost)
- Feb. 14 — Beat Illinois 93-81 as a 3.5-point underdog (won)
- Feb. 18 — Won at Minnesota 76-69 as a 6.5-point favorite (won)
- Feb. 23 — Won at Ohio State 75-71 as a 2.5-point underdog (won)
- Feb. 26 — Lost to Rutgers 59-56 as a 4.5-point favorite (lost)
- March 1 — Won at Northwestern 68-65 in overtime as a 4.5-point underdog (won)
- March 5 — Beat No. 21 Maryland 65-65 as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
- March 9 — Beat Illinois 79-76 in second round of Big Ten Tournament in Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog (won)
- March 10 — Beat Northwestern 67-65 in overtime in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago. as a 3.5-point underdog (won)

Tom Brew has been the publisher of “Indiana Hoosiers on SI’’ since 2019. He has worked at some of America's finest newspapers as an award-winning reporter and editor for more than four decades, including the Tampa Bay (Fla.) Times, Indianapolis Star and South Florida Sun-Sentinel. He operates seven sites on the “On SI’’ network. Follow Tom on Twitter @tombrewsports.