My Two Cents: If I Had Three Wishes For Indiana on Friday Night ...
ALBANY, N.Y.— All day long — all week, really — people have been asking me how I feel about Friday night, when Indiana opens the NCAA Tournament against pesky Kent State here in the MVP Arena in upstate New York.
The answer? It's short and sweet.
Cautiously optimistic is how I feel. And on that scale, what weighs heavier, the caution or the optimism?
To be honest, it really is the optimism for me. Kent State is really good. They have a 28-6 record, won their conference title, play with major swagger and are battle-tested, playing teams in like Houston and Gonzaga in the nonconference season and then blowing through the Mid-American Conference with a 15-3 record.
They are a veteran team with a lot of fifth-year players, and they aren't the least bit scared of Indiana.
In fact, a lot of folks in Hoosier Nation might be more afraid of Indiana than they are.
That's the biggest thing heading into Friday's very late game, which probably won't start until well past 10 p.m. ET. We really don't know which Indiana team will show up, do we?
There have been times this year where the Hoosiers have been crazy impressive and look like they can beat anyone. I believe that to be true, especially after beating Purdue twice, and winning on the road in tough buildings at Illinois and Michigan.
But there are also those 11 losses on Indiana's resume, and we saw all of their flaws in each one of those losses. They don't rebound well at times, they don't keep penetrating guards in front of them and — far too often — they give up way too many three-pointers.
Any of those things happen on Friday night against Kent State, and the season will be over. The Hoosiers, modest 4.5-point favorites, have to be at their best to beat the Golden Flashes.
I do think that will happen, being at their best. This team has had six days off, and they're well rested and laser focused. This is the end or the road for senior Trayce Jackson-Davis, and I won't be a bit surprised if he has an epic night. The only thing lacking on his resume is an NCAA Tournament run, and I do think that starts tonight.
Y'all know I don't gamble, but I can tell you this much. I saw on Fanduel that the over/under on his points total is 21.5. Man, he's blowing by that Friday night, and I can say that with confidence.
Kent State is a good defensive team. They are very aggressive, and will attack and swarm and swat at the ball whenever they can. They will almost certainly double-team Trayce, and they'll do it in a lot of different ways because they don't have any one person who can hang with him in single coverage. I have zero issue with Trayce taking 20 or more shots tonight if he's getting good looks.
I'm expecting big things from Trayce, and I think he puts that big validation stamp on all of his first-team All-American award this week.
But it is a team game, of course, and there are lots of other things to worry about as well.
So, if I had three wishes ...
1. Win the high-profile point guard battle
Sincere Carry is Kent State's best player. He's a 6-foot-1 point guard from Farrell, Pa., who's in his fifth year of college ball. He has played 131 games, and is a terrific offensive player. He's scored 1,957 career points and will do his best to make Indiana uncomfortable.
This is a game where Indiana freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino, the Hoosiers' full-time point guard since Xavier Johnson went down with a foot injury, has to have a great game. He's 6-foot-6 and has the size advantage, but Carry has the speed edge.
Hood-Schifino has to win this matchup.
They won't guard each other all the time, but when they are matched up, Hood-Schifino has to keep Carry in front of him. No straight-line drives to the basket, and force him to take tough, contested shots.
And on the offensive end, I'd love to see the 6-foot-6 Hood-Schifino post him up when he can. That's not often a part of Indiana's offense — and I've often wondered why — but it needs to be a part of the offensive game plan Friday night. Make Carry work on the defensive end, and get him in foul trouble if you can.
Hood-Schifino can do that. This, I think, is the key to the game.
2. Go small if you have to
Kent State basically plays four guards, and they like to spread you out defensively. This has been a problem at times this season for Indiana, and they can't let that happen tonight. They can't be sent home with a barrage of three-pointers.
Kent State shoots just 33.6 percent from three, which isn't really that good, ranking No. 205 in the country out of 352 teams. (Indiana, often criticized for its perimeter shooting, makes 37.03 percent of their long balls, good for No. 41 in the country.)
Still, Kent State likes to penetrate and kick out and Indiana simply cannot leave their shooters. You can't let them get hot. And with the floor spread like that, I would love to see another guard on the floor instead of senior forward Race Thompson. Indiana needs to be quicker on defense, and defend that line. Tamar Bates is a big part of this tonight, I think. If he's playing well — an occasional question mark, I know — it might make sense to play him with Hood-Schifino and Trey Galloway, and slide Miller Kopp down to the four.
This is going to be one of those real-time decisions that Indiana coach Mike Woodson needs to make. And, frankly, having another perimeter shooter on the floor might help give Trayce Jackson-Davis more room to dominate inside. It's a potential win-win situation.
3. Don't let them go on runs
Indiana has been very good this year in coming from behind to win games. They've done it eight times this year, where they've been behind in the second half but still found a way to win.
That's not a great recipe in the one-and-done NCAA Tournament. That's why it's important to not let Kent State go off on any big runs. The Hoosiers don't need to be playing catch-up in this game.
The Hoosiers, who have been a slow-starting team often this season, can't let that happen tonight. They've been better about that lately, and it certainly would help to get out front early — and stay there. Make Kent State change their plan. Force them to do things they aren't comfortable with.
In other words, be the better team, and show it from the beginning. The Hoosiers are the higher seed, they're favored and they should win.
That guarantees nothing, of course, as we've seen during the first two days of this tournament. A lot of people had Arizona winning it all in their brackets — hand raised — and they got knocked out in the first round as a No. 2 seed. Virginia, a fellow No. 4 seed, is gone, too.
What's good for Indiana is that they've been able to see all of this. They're the last of 32 first-round games. They've seen the upsets, seen the intensity, seen the postgame celebrations — and postgame tears.
They were the last game on Friday in the Big Ten Tournament, too, and they saw nine of the league's 14 teams eliminated before they ever took the court. Thirty-something teams will be eliminated in the NCAAs too before the Hoosiers play.
Maybe that's a good thing.
All we know is that Indiana is very capable of winning tonight, and I think they will. They're also capable of losing too, and we know that all too well. My prediction? I think Indiana wins 78-71, and Trayce has 28 or more. I think they do a good job of holding off Kent State runs and advance to Round 2 on Sunday.
That's the wish. Right?
Related stories on Indiana basketball
- POINT SPREAD: Kent State has been undervalued by the betting public all year long and has covered in nearly 70 percent of its games. That's why they are a trendy upset pick against Indiana on Friday night. Here's the latest on the point spread, and a thorough background vs. the number for both team. Great knowledge here. CLICK HERE
- HOW TO WATCH: No. 4 seed Indiana plays No. 13 seed Kent State on Friday night in the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round of 64. Here's how to watch, with game time and TV information, the latest on the point spread, the coaching matchup, series history, stats, rankings and more. CLICK HERE
- SENDEROFF SILENT ON INDIANA SANCTIONS: Kent State coach Rob Senderoff was an assistant coach at Indiana under Kelvin Sampson from 2006-08 when he resigned due to NCAA recruiting violations. Heading into Senderoff's matchup against Indiana in the NCAA Tournament with Kent State, he declined to speak about his violations at Indiana. CLICK HERE
- SENSE OF URGENCY: Trayce Jackson-Davis' basketball career at Indiana is one loss away from being over, and no one knows that better than he does. That's why he knows every possession matters on Friday night when the Hoosiers begin their NCAA Tournament journey against Kent State. CLICK HERE
- NCAA TOURNAMENT RESULTS, PAIRINGS: Here are all the results so far in the NCAA Tournament, along with updated pairings. CLICK HERE
- INDIANA SCHEDULE: Here is the complete Indiana basketball schedule for the 2022-23 season, including links to all the stories from games played so far. CLICK HERE
- TRAYCE SCORING LIST: Indiana senior Trayce Jackson-Davis is now No. 3 on the school's scoring list. He's passed 13 players this year. Here's the complete list of all 54 Hoosiers who have scored 1,000 points or more. CLICK HERE
- BIG TEN ROUNDUP (March 16): Five Big Ten teams took the floor on Thursday in the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round of 64. Iowa and Illinois were sent home with losses, while Maryland and Northwestern secured narrow wins. Penn State was the Big Ten's top performer on Thursday, crushing Texas A&M 76-59 behind eight 3-pointers from Andrew Funk. CLICK HERE
